The Angry Fan

The Upset and the Devil Child

2009-06-25T07:06:00.002-04:00

I'm not a soccer guy.

This in spite of playing AYSO, high school and college soccer for a combined six seasons, and pick-up games on the fields of Boston and Williamsburg, VA for probably another four or five years. Like basketball, it's a sport I enjoy playing more than watching.

That said, I spent a lot of time covering high school soccer when I first broke into reporting, and I do watch the World Cup. Not religiously, but I do enjoy the occasional WC game.

Yesterday team USA accomplished something in the FIFA Cup tournament that most who know soccer would call one of the unlikeliest of achievements. They beat Spain in the semi-finals.

I don't claim to know a lot about the sport from an international perspective, but I know this - US Soccer isn't going to get the credit it deserves for this win due to the lack of interest in this country. Sure, it will from American soccer fans, but it's sad that the rest of the country probably won't acknowledge this win for what it is. This was the US beating Team Russia in hockey in the 1980 Olympics.

The only parallel that doesn't exist is that Spain isn't the big bad villain of a shadow war with the United States. But, otherwise both Spain Soccer and the Russian Hockey (are/were) the best in their respective sports. Spain had gone undefeated for 35 matches, and had notched 15 straight wins. Their goalie had gone the equivalent of five games without giving up a goal when the US scored on him.

Both times the US faced the most dominating team in the sport in the semi-finals, needing to beat that team to move on to the finals. If the Americans can win the FIFA cup, they seal the deal and the parallels with the 1980 US Hockey Team are close to complete. All that will be missing is the attention Hockey got for its win. And that's a shame.

Devil Child...

Jon Lester got the win last night and is now 6-6 after going 6 innings, while giving up 6 hits and striking out 6. Yup, Jon Lester is Damien.

Overall, Lester has put up average numbers this season - 6-6, 4.68 ERA - however, after a rough start to the season, Lester appears to have turned a corner.

Since May 21, the Red Sox lefty is 4-2 in seven starts with five quality starts. He has had only one start in which he gave up more than three earned runs, has given up only one run four times, logged one complete game and has a 2.78 ERA over that stretch.

To put that in perspective, previous to May 21, Lester was 2-4 in eight starts with a 6.51 ERA. Only three of those eight starts qualified as quality starts, and five times he gave up five earned runs or more. On top of that, over the last seven games he has averaged two-thirds of an inning more than he was averaging over his first eight games. While that might not outwardly sound like much, in essence he has pitched roughly an extra five innings.

Speaking of turning a corner, David Ortiz might have. I'm still hoping this isn't just a streak, or a signal that Big Papi has hit the beginning of the end and this is his last hurrah, but after starting horribly, Ortiz has come on strong in June.

Sure, he's only batting .219 with an OPS of .700, but as recently as May 30 the big guy was hitting .185 with an OPS of .569. Since May 30 the big man has been on a tear. He has hit six of his seven homeruns since May 30 he's batting .297 and has 15 (of his 33 total) RBI. For the month of June he's hitting .327.

Historically, his best months have been June (career .307 average in June) and July (.322 for his career), so it should be interesting to see what happens over the next month to Ortiz.

One liners

2009-06-23T10:16:00.002-04:00

So...should we just start referring to PED's as Rocket Fuel?

If Tom Brady picks up at the beginning of the coming season where he left off at the end of 2007, what's the over/under for the first bionic man reference? Week three?

If Peyton Manning struggles, what will be blamed first? Age or the change in coaching staff?

If Brady struggles, what's the over/under on blaming him for coming back from rehab too quickly?

This year's Daisuke Matsuzaka has been more crumbling Dice than tumbling Dice. Take your time figuring it out, and get back when you can.

Is it just me, or are there a lot of morons out there complaining about the value for the dollar with the Dice-man. It's three seasons into a six season contract, and this is the only season that the Dice has come up craps, so to speak.

A Penny saved...if Brad Penny continues on pace, he will have a comparable year to his 2006 campaign with the Dodgers...adjusted for pitching in the batter's A-League of course. For what it's worth, I'll take 14 to 16 wins from my fourth starter.

Am I the only one hoping that Patrick Chung turns out to be a better pick than the last man the Pats drafted with that last name - Eugene Chung?

Should we call him Steroidin' Sammy now?

Yeah, I'd be peeved at Alex Rodriguez if I were Yankee management - fatigue from an operation and playing are one thing, but Jet-setter Lag?

Yup, sometimes it's the trade that didn't happen that determines the fate of a franchise. How about them Apples, NY?

Least surprising news ever

2009-06-17T07:12:00.003-04:00

So, Sammy Sosa tested positive back in 2003 along with Alex Rodriguez. The news of this comes out only a few short weeks after Sosa went public, lobbying for his place in the Hall of Fame.

In an interview with ESPN Deportes at the beginning of June, Sosa said,

"Everything I achieved, I did it thanks to my perseverance, which is why I never had any long, difficult moments [as a baseball player]. If you have a bad day in baseball, and start thinking about it, you will have 10 more," Sosa said in his first public comments in months.
"I will calmly wait for my induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Don't I have the numbers to be inducted?"
...
"I always played with love and responsibility, and I assure you that I will not answer nor listen to rumors," Sosa said. "If anything ugly comes up in the future, we will confront it immediately, but with all our strength, because I will not allow anybody to tarnish what I did in the field."

Coincidence that his name gets leaked three weeks after he begins to lobby for the Hall? I think not.

The only two places this could be coming from are either the Union, or the Justice Department which forced baseball to turn over the list. My guess is that it's being leaked by someone in Justice.

At this point he can pretty much kiss the Hall goodbye as he definitively has joined the ranks of McGwire, Palmeiro, Clemens, and A-Rod as players whose artificially inflated numbers are being viewed with either increased or overwhelming skepticism.

Typically, I'm not big on comparing players from different eras in baseball, but this is different. Everything is skewed from about 1990ish on. Some players used PEDs, some didn't. But it should change how players are viewed, and this most recent era almost demands we consider how these players would have done in earlier eras. And I don't think they would hold up well.

We have lived through an era that should make anyone who knows the history of the game appreciate those who came before much more. Appreciate Roger Maris and Hank Aaron, Ted Williams and Babe Ruth all the more for knowing they did it not only without things like steroids and HGh, but without the diluted pitching that sluggers have faced for the last two decades.

Does anyone really believe that without steroids and facing the likes of Sandy Koufax, or Tom Seaver, or Don Drysdale in their primes that Jason Giambi would have anywhere near the same number of career homers? Barry Bonds? Alex Rodriguez?

We live in an era where pitchers average only about six innings per outing, in spite of the fact that they get an extra day of rest from the five man rotation as opposed to the four man rotation that was popular 40 and 50 years ago. As recently as the 1970's and early 80's a horse was a pitcher who threw 250 to 300 innings in a season. Now if a pitcher hits 200 innings he's the horse of a rotation.

At one point the Orioles had four 20 game winners in one season. There were four in all of baseball last season. That staff (1971 Orioles) also accounted for 70 complete games. Last season it took 21 pitchers to combine for that many complete games.

On a lighter note -

David Ortiz is actually hitting over .300 for the month of June and has raised his batting average by 22 points. I'm still a little skeptical given the fact that he has always hit the Yankees well for his career and he's currently facing the Marlins after facing the Tigers and Rangers. The only one of those teams with decent pitching is Detroit. Otherwise, the Yankees are 26th, the Marlins 22nd, and the Rangers are 17th in team ERA.

I'm not saying that I'm not happy about this streak, I'm just saying that I'm hoping it's not just a streak. I will feel a whole lot better if Ortiz can get that batting average up to around .240, particularly given the fact that I sincerely believe that Varitek will go into his usual cool down mode as summer heats up.

It is possible that facing the weak pitching is exactly what Big Papi needs to break him out of his funk, but give it to the All-Star Break before you get too excited. In other words, be happy for now, but if he takes a hard left turn back to where he was, don't be surprised. I'm hoping he doesn't - call it cautious optimism.

As for the potential of the Sox going to a 6 man rotation - it's something I think might help Daisuke Matsuzaka given that he pitched in a 6 man rotation in Japan. Otherwise, I don't know how beneficial this will be to the rest of the staff given the fact that it looks like everyone else has begun to hit a rhythm.

Final note - The Australian football team on which I play, the Baltimore/Washington Eagles kicked off their season with a 105-15 win over the Columbus (OH) Jackaroos. This upcoming weekend is an off-week before we head on up to New York to play the Magpies in Yonkers.

Crazy eights and other observations

2009-06-12T11:30:00.002-04:00

Eight in a row after an eighth inning comeback.

Are the Red Sox in the Yankees' heads? Maybe. Maybe not. I think it's as much the fact that the Yankees just aren't constructed to hang as anything else. Yes, there are a lot of big names in there, but let's really look at this. And just for symmetry, lets look at eight reasons why the Yankees are looking up at the Red Sox after dropping eight in a row to their arch-rivals to start the season (and nine total going back to last season)...

1. CC Sabathia, the would-be ace to get the team over the hump - 5-4 with a 3.68 ERA. Only 50 percent of his starts qualify as quality starts. Solid, yes. Dominating the way an ace should be? Hardly.

2. The revamped bullpen - The Bronx Bombers are 19th in ERA after the 7th inning so far this season with a team ERA of 4.33, and the team as a whole is also 19th in ERA with men in scoring position and 2 outs at 19.73. Sure, no one has a spectacular ERA in that position (the Dodgers lead the league with a 15.86, and the Red Sox are 5th at 16.96, almost three runs better per nine innings than the Yankees). As good pitching will almost always overcome good hitting, this does not bode well for the Bombers as the season progresses.

3. Counting on Wang and Burnett - The Yankees were counting on Chien-Ming Wang to bounce back from a year in which he struggled due to injury during the first time in his career. Wangs' issues, reportedly, had to do with a foot injury. Even if he's healthy, working back from a foot injury is going to affect a pitcher's mechanics. They have also counted on the idea that AJ Burnett would dominate like he did last season. But outside of contract years, Burnett is an imminently mediocre pitcher. AJ was signed with the expectation of being the number two or three guy in the rotation. He would be the four or five guy in the Boston rotation.

4. The New Yankee Stadium - A raucus home park gives any team an advantage. A home park that can't sell a significant portion of its seats due to overpricing gives visiting teams an advantage, particularly when the team is already starting with an overrated pitching staff and has redesigned the home park to be a launching pad.

5. Better depth overall - Without starting center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, back-ups Mark Kotsay combined to go 3 for 11 (.273) with one run scored against the Yanks. On top of that, both made spectacular defensive plays in the field on what looked like sure extra-base hits. Instead, Yankees found themselves walking back to their dugout, failing to reach base. For all the talk about the Yankees combating injuries, the Sox played the series without their aforementioned outfielder, started their back-up catcher in one game, and continue to play without their starting short-stop. The back-ups thrust into starting roles this series went 9 for 26 (.346), with two home runs, 3 RBI, 7 of Boston's 17 runs scored. This doesn't even deal with the fact that the Sox bullpen can overcome a bad outing by one of its members. The Yanks' pen can't.

6. David Ortiz - Before anybody reads a whole lot into a potential resurgence of the Boston slugger, it should be noted that Ortiz is batting .263 against the Twins and then it drops again to .235 against Baltimore. There are four AL teams against which Ortiz is batting .160 or below. He's been strong batting .364 against Texas and .313 against Cleveland. He has been a Yankee killer, however, batting .321 with 8 RBI against Yankee pitching.

7. The starting rotation - The Yankee starters are a respectable 21-16, with six starters putting that record together. The Sox, with six starters, racked a 28-18 record. Both teams have logged 60 starts with Sox starters qualifying for 46 decisions and averaging just under 8 decisions per starter as well as 4 wins per starter. NY starters are averaging just a shade over 6 decisions per starter and 3.5 wins per starter. In essence, the Yankees are having to go to their bullpen with greater frequency. During the series, at least 8 of the Boston runs crossed the plate with a Yankee reliever on the mound while Sox starters logged 18 innings in three games to the Yankees' 12.1.

8. Timing - for all the to do made regarding the Yankees errorless streak, it seemed that whenever the Yanks needed a big defensive stop, or a clutch hit, the team came up short while Boston made the plays. Whether it was A-Rod's double clutching leading to unearned runs, or the Sox relievers coming up with the big stop when NY relievers couldn't, the Yankees in the first eight games of the series against the Sox have made mistakes or failed to come through at the worst possible times.

And other observations...

Vince Young wants his starting position back. I suggest he fight for it on the field rather than in the press. I suspect that he's not the only "quarterback of the future" that will end up riding the pine this season. My guess, Matt Leinart continues to ride the pine, as does Tavaris Jackson, and that Jamarcus Russell loses his starting job to Jeff Garcia.

And finally, I suspect that Michael Vick will land somewhere, but not anytime soon, and I can hardly venture a guess as to where he will land. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if no one signs him, but I think someone will at some point. Someone will think that he will make for a good option in the Wildcat, or might help their team out in some way or other. However, given a little bit of time removed from the "excitement" that is the Vick experience, I think that most personnel people have realized that he's not going to be the answer at quarterback, and for all the excitement he might bring on the field, that he's not worth the headache and lack of dedication off of it.

Rejected headlines

2009-06-11T09:47:00.002-04:00

Yanks' Wang flaccid

Limp Wang removed early

Yankees' Wang impotent and ineffective

Yankees kicked in their Wang

Wang's balls help Bombers knuckle under

Sox knock Yanks' Wang

Okay, admittedly this is among my more juvenile posts, but I couldn't resist. Back again when the Sox-Yanks series concludes, and some observations about other NFL happenings like the boneheaded comments of Vince Young and other thoughts.

Story lines

2009-06-10T09:18:00.004-04:00

There are some interesting story lines developing around sports right now. Some short term, some long term. I wanted to look at some...

Short term...

The Orlando Magic are one blown alley-oop away from being up 2-1 in the finals. Can they actually come back from down 2-0, or are they just making the NBA finals interesting?

Can the Penguins actually go into Detroit and pull off the upset?

Longer term stories to watch...

At some point this season the Yankees are going to win a game against the Red Sox. It could be tonight, it might not be until the next series. But will the Yankees inability to beat the Sox early in the season come back to haunt them late in the season? And on the flip side, how much could this early dominance by Boston play into the team winning the division?

Is David Ortiz actually showing signs of breaking out of his slump? He's riding a seven game hitting streak, and has had hits in 9 of his last 12. Even though it's the only time this season that he's had a hitting streak last more than three games, he hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. He's had only one multi-hit game in that stretch, and is 10 for 48 (.208) - even if you just look at his seven game hitting streak, he's a respectable 8 for 29 (.276), not exactly tearing the cover off the ball, but better. Right now it's a more compelling story than the Red Sox trials and tribulations at short stop. Will he or won't he?

As bad as Ortiz has been at the plate, Chien-Ming Wang has been worse on the mound for the Yankees. How far can they expect to go with a completely ineffective (defective?) Wang. They're already keeping their fingers crossed that AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain can stay healthy, what is their future (this season) going to look like if they have to rely on an imminently hittable Phil Hughes? And how long can Andy Pettitte go, with batters hitting over .280 against him?

I can't help but think over on the gridiron that the Patrick Pass signing was more or less to add depth at the position for training camp. Does he have a shot at the team? Sure, but I would be surprised if he were on the roster on opening day. Honestly, I would be surprised if he made it to the final cuts. It should be interesting to watch.

Of course, there's always the question of Tom Brady's knee, and how he will respond in game situations. A lot of people are talking about early season issues due to shaking the rust off, and while possible, I think Brady will get the time and reps to do that during the preseason games. What people aren't talking about is how the Patriots' schedule might impact their high-octane offense.

After the bye week in 2007, on the team's way to the only 16-0 regular season, the Patriots played seven consecutive cold weather games, four of which were in Gillette, the rest of which were at the Meadowlands, at Buffalo, and at Baltimore. In the coming season, after the bye the Patriots will play nine games. Four games are at home - Miami on November 8, the Jets on November 22, Carolina on December 13, and Jacksonville on December 27. Of those, only the Jets game starts later than 1:00, and the Miami game is early enough in the season that the weather may or may not be a factor.

Of the other five games, one is in Buffalo, three are either in domes or stadiums with retractible roofs (Indy, New Orleans, and Houston), and the other is in Miami. With about half of their remaining games being played either indoors or in warm places, the Patriots offense has a chance to really light things up...assuming Brady is perfectly healthy.

Outside of New England, these are the things to watch -

The play calling of the new staff in Indianapolis. This is going to go a long way towards determining where the Colts end up this season. Will it be a seamless transition from last year? Do all the coaches have a good instinct for the right defense at the right time? Will they find they have the right people at the right positions?

Is Rex Ryan the right man for the job in New York, and are they really going to make any noise with their current quarterback situation?

Can Chad Pennington stay healthy for the entire season? Pennington has struggled his entire career to put together back to back healthy seasons. When healthy he's a top ten QB in the league - no, he doesn't rack up big statistics, but he's smart and doesn't turn the ball over a whole lot, and wins, even with sub-par talent. If Pennington can't stay healthy, the Dolphins have no chance. Healthy, they can still get to the playoffs.

How is the Buffalo soap opera going to play out? Sure, they managed to get an extra weapon in Terrell Owens, but he's paired with, easily, the worst quarterback of his career (after dealing with Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Drew Bledsoe, and Tony Romo), and they open the season without their star running back for three games. If the team starts off 0-3 or 1-2, what's the likelihood that Owens will hold his tongue? The Bills are on the verge of becoming the AFC East's Bengals, or Raiders.

Speaking of the Bengals, after admitting to the press that he mailed it in back in 2008, are there any teammates that are going to trust Chad Ochocinco?

How's Jay Cutler going to fare without any legitimate, top-flight receivers?

How are teams like Denver, Cleveland and Kansas going to fare under their new regimes?

Will Lance Armstrong be ready for the Tour de France coming off his injury?

Off-hand, those are just some of the ones I can think of. Should be a fun year.

Catching up, yet again

2009-06-09T08:59:00.004-04:00

As you might be able to tell, I have been busy lately. I have about a half dozen story proposals or so floating out there with various magazines, have been working on home improvements, looking into going back to a staff position somewhere now that my youngest daughter is closing in on two - all of that has taken away from my time here at TAF. There have been a lot of things to comment on that have come and gone in the five days since my last blog post. Here goes...

Overall, I have no vested interest in the NHL finals and little more than that in the NBA finals this year. At least if Carolina had made it to the Stanley Cup round of the post season on the ice, then I would at least have a former New England team to root for, but we have the Penguins and the Red Wings. Eh.

Over on the hardwood...well, let's just say that the entirety of my interest there would be in seeing the Lakers lose. I don't think it's going to happen now that Los Angeles is up 2-0, but I would love to see them lose.

The Lakers are one of those teams that I love to see lose, they're up there with the Yankees, Cowboys, and Raiders. Being a Patriots fan, some might be puzzled that I haven't picked division rivals like the Jets and Dolphins, or even the rival Colts, but there's something different with them.

If the Raiders went 0-16, I would enjoy that, and while I kind of rooted for the Dolphins to match that mark two seasons ago (but only when they were in the 0-13 territory), I much prefer it when the Jets and Dolphins are decent for a couple of reasons - one: better games. Two: I much prefer seeing those teams come close and get knocked out at the hands of the Patriots then to watch them struggled and be eliminated from contention before Halloween.

Speaking of football, I didn't like Peyton Manning's public criticism of the new coaching regime. I don't know if it was more a reflection of the new staff still finding its feet, or a reflection of how spoiled Manning has been due to virtually no coaching defections during his career. In theory, there should be little to no change in how the Colts play the game since the entire coaching staff was there under Tony Dungy, but there's no telling if Pete Metzellars is going to be as good at coaching up line men as Howard Mudd - yes, he did well in the middle of the year taking over for Mudd when Mudd was dealing with health issues, but how does he do starting with a free-agent rookie from scratch like Mudd did with Jeff Saturday? He may be fine, but we just don't really know.

On top of that, the team has new coordinators for pretty much the entire team - offense, defense, and special teams. The play calling will be different. Maybe better, maybe worse.

My guess is that the team shows some growing pains, but they miss the playoffs as a ten or eleven win team, finishing behind the Titans again in their own division.

The Colts enter the season not unlike the Patriots. While the key question for the Colts is "how the is the coaching staff going to perform," the Pats are rolling the dice on the rebuilt knee of their all-pro quarterback. If Brady can play without the knee getting into his head, he should be the same guy they've always had back there. With a very likely revamped and improved Jets defense in week two, the Ravens defense in week four and the Titans and Bucs all in the first seven weeks of the season, fans of the Patriots will find out quickly if Tom Brady is thinking about the knee, or about completing passes.

While the Pats defense was shaky last season, I'm less concerned there based on the moves the team has made, leaving the biggest question on the offensive side of the ball.

Over on the diamond I can't say that homer that David Ortiz had gave me any sort of hope that he's breaking out of that power slump. Big Papi just barely cleared the wall right at the Pesky Pole. In any other ball park that hit is a long single or maybe a double, but certainly not a home run.

Jon Lester's near no-no, however, might be cause for hope. I'm still reserving judgement on the Sox lefty for at least another two starts (he's failed to put together more than two good starts in a row, in spite of leading the team in innings pitched), before I say that he's turned the corner, but things have been encouraging lately.

Through his first eight starts Lester was 4-2 with a 6.51 ERA. He bottomed out in starts five and six, pitching a total of ten innings while giving up 13 earned runs over the two games. It was his worst two game stretch of the year, beating out his first two starts in which he pitched eleven total innings while giving up eleven earned runs.

In the four starts since, Lester has pitched 27.1 innings, gone 3-1 with three quality starts, all the while logging a 2.64 ERA. His next best four game stretch ran from his start on April 19 and ran to May 4. During that stretch he went 2-0, and gave up 10 earned runs over 26 innings for a 3.46 ERA. Like the recent stretch, Lester had three of four quality starts. So, yeah, I'm going with a wait and see approach on the Sox lefty.

While Lester has certainly had his issues this season, and almost all of the pitchers have faltered badly at one time or another, they have all been better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has struggled in just about every outing.

For all of Lester's issues, the Left is averaging 6.1 innings per start. Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett are also averaging 6.1 innings per start. Even the oft maligned Brad Penny is pushing 5.2 innings per start, an average that would be higher were it not for two rough starts in his first three of the season in which he pitched for a grand total of 5.2 in those two starts. The Dice-man? Just a shade under 4.2 innings pitched per game. Yes, that includes a one inning/five-earned run fiasco of a start, that without he is averaging 5.1 innings per start and still has the highest ERA of the starters at 5.88.

While Matsuzaka's stats, sans the one terrible start, is only slightly higher than Brad Penny's 5.85 (overall), and slightly lower than Penny's IP per game, it might do better to look at the number of quality starts each of the Sox starters has turned in...

Matsuzaka - 0 for 6_00.0%
Masterson - 2 for 6*_33.3%
Lester - 6 for 12_ 50%
Penny - 6 for 11_54.5%
Wakefield - 7 for 11_63.6%
Beckett - 8 for 11_72.7%

*One note on Masterson's six starts - his first two starts he failed to go a full six innings, both times leaving after only 5.1 innings, but also leaving the game after giving up only one earned run. During Masterson's run of six starts in place of Matsuzaka, Masterson was 2-2 with a 4.59 ERA while averaging just under six innings per start. How long do they go with Matsuzaka in an effort to let him get his feet before they make a switch to Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden or someone else? How much time does their monetary investment in the Dice-man buy him?

God...a lot to cover, and little time to do it in...

2009-06-03T09:12:00.004-04:00

First, I want to touch on the boneheaded.

James Harrison of the Steelers is an idiot. If you don't want to go to visit the president, fine. Don't tell me it's because if the Cardinals had won that they would have been invited and then go calling the president a fair weather fan because of it. I mean, is he really that ignorant?

Speaking of ignorant - I think that LeBron James ranting about being a competitor rings really hollow as an excuse to not shake hands and to not talk to the press immediately following getting bounced from the playoffs is hollow, immature, and bush league. I could put together a list of people that are extraordinarily competitive that haven't done that - Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Curt Schilling, Pete Rose...the list goes on.

None of those people shied away from the press when they lost, and they understood, as faces of their franchises, that they were expected to act like a leader whether they won, or they were metaphorically kicked in the balls. They knew there was nothing wrong with acknowledging the competition's achievements at their own expense. They may not always say the right things (see Manning's rant about his offensive line a couple of years ago - even if it's accurate, you don't throw teammates under the bus).

On a personal note, I was offended. I'm a very competitive guy. Over the years, since a kid through now I played baseball (little league and college), football (HS, semi-pro), street hockey (8 years), ran track (7 seasons HS and college), soccer (youth, HS, college), martial arts (25 years), and Australian football (10 seasons). In that time I was involved with some absolutely dominant teams (in all six HS seasons of track the team I ran on either outright won or tied for the league championship in every season), and some absolute dogs (in two seasons of division 3 college baseball I played for a team that went 2-18. We lost to teams such as the Massachusetts College of Pharmacy...yes, we lost to future pharmacists).

I'm not saying that people should be happy about losing. In no way, shape or form am I saying that. But there's nothing wrong with congratulating someone on beating your brains in. Nothing wrong at all in acknowledging that you and your team were outplayed.

Other quick thoughts...

Right now, based on recent starts, the Sox rotation, in regards to the importance of what the starters are doing for them looks like this -

Josh Beckett
Brad Penny
Tim Wakefield
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka

For the last month Beckett has been the ace that they had two seasons ago. Hopefully that lasts.

Penny, for all the talk about trading him before the deadline, has been the team's most consistent starter, outside of Beckett since the end of April. Until they have a sure-thing number-two starter, Penny has made himself near indispensable in the Sox rotation.

Overall, Wakefield has been the Sox best starter, but for the last month he's been a little erratic. Yes, he carried the rotation in April, but with two tough starts in the last month, Wake has fallen to the middle of the rotation. Still, assuming he stays healthy, he's on pace to win fifteen or more games this season.

Lester has been a crap shoot all season long. One start he'll be absolutely dominating and look like he's turned the corner, the next he'll get lit up for seven runs in four innings. If he can put together more than two good starts back to back, well, let's just say that would be a nice change and a good place to start.

I just can't put Matsuzaka any higher than fifth in this list, in spite of Lester's struggles. For all of Lester's problems, he's still averaging six innings per start. Matsuzaka has managed to pitch into the sixth inning in only one of his starts and has averaged 4.1 innings per start. Only once in his five starts has he given up fewer than three earned runs. Yes, his last start was encouraging, but he's still at the bottom of the pile right now.

Finally (regarding the Red Sox), I'm not buying into the Renaissance of Jason Varitek. Yes, he's putting up decent numbers (he's on pace for about 30 home runs and 66 RBI), but at the end of May last year 'Tek was batting .272 through 46 games. At the time he was on pace for 20 home runs and 60 RBI. The remainder of the season he batted .191 and finished with 13 homeruns and 43 RBI. For the final two-thirds of the season he hit all of six home runs and had 23 runs driven in. When the weather got hot, 'Tek's bat cooled off.

That wasn't a complete fluke. In 2007 'Tek hit .245 for the balance of the season after hitting .277 for the first two months of that season. Overall the Sox catcher finished on pace for homeruns (he was on pace for 15 and finished with 17) but off the pace for RBI (he was on pace for 78, but finished with 68). Sure, that last one wasn't a huge difference, but it is an illustration of Varitek's drop off in production during warmer weather in each of the last couple of seasons.

My guess is that his bat cools off over the next couple of months and he finishes around .220 with under 50 RBI and between 15 and 20 HR. I just hope I'm wrong.

The last thing I wanted to touch on...

All the reports out of Foxboro are that Tom Brady is moving well in OTA's.

My guess is that Brady will see some significant time in at least one, if not two of the preseason games for two reasons. The coaching staff is going to want him to shake off the rust of a season off, and more importantly, to see how he reacts to bodies around him. Watch him step up in the pocket, avoid the rush, see if the knee is in his head, so to speak.

If he comes through with flying colors, it could be a very interesting season for the Pats.

Offensively this team broke a ton of records two seasons ago. Both Randy Moss and Wes Welker were in their first year in the system. That included playing the team's final seven games all in cold/bad weather locations after mid-November.

Is the offense going to be as good? Probably not - 2007 was a once-in-a-lifetime sort of season, but an argument can be made to expect big things.

Moss and Welker are in their third season in the system. Brady has a season of rest. His third and fourth options with Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis (not to mention Sam Aiken) are better than what he had then. He should have a healthy stable of running backs going into the season - also better than they were then with the addition of Fred Taylor and the return of a healthy Laurence Maroney, along with Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk.

If the O-line stays healthy, they could still put up big numbers.

On top of all that, I firmly believe that the defense has upgraded with Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs on the corners, and mind you this is merely a guess, but I would put odds on the Patriots signing the recently released Greg Ellis to bolster the linebacking corps which I think is going to get a boost from a healthy Shawn Crable anyway. The defense's big problem is that a number of the players in the second level are new to the system. If they come together, this defense has the potential to be one of the best of the Belichick era.

Of course all of this is contingent upon being healthy. A hard thing in the NFL.

And a final Patriot note -

Happy trails Rodney Harrison. I'm looking forward to your career as an analyst.

Starting picture

2009-05-26T09:34:00.003-04:00

Red Sox starters, expected to be a strength of the team, have had a rough go of it through the first two months. Daisuke Matsuzaka has managed only three starts and a stratospheric ERA of 10.32. Of the team's other five starters (with at least six starts), only Tim Wakefield (3.99) and Justin Masterson (4.47) have ERA's below five. Currently would-be ace Josh Beckett is at 5.01, last year's best pitcher, Jon Lester is cruising at 5.91, and free-agent pick-up Brad Penny is floating a 5.96.

While Wake has been the team's ace, even winning two of his three bad outings, and Masterson has been excellent in all but two of his starts (a 2.35 ERA in the four starts not including the May 1 and 6 starts), the rest of the staff has struggled. In some of those cases, however, the struggles might be somewhat superficial.

Of the team's starting five, Lester has been the most erratic having given up three or fewer earned runs in four of his nine starts, but five or more in the other five starts. In three of his starts following a start in which he gave up five or more earned he has bounced back to give up 0, 3, and 1 earned respectively. Unfortunately, the question for his next start revolves around which Lester is going to show up.

Beckett and Penny, on the other hand, have begun to show signs of life.

Beckett hit rock bottom on April 30 when he failed to make it out of the 5th inning at Tampa, making it second start in back to back starts in which he failed to pitch more than five innings (the only time he's gone fewer than six innings in any start this season). His ERA topped out at 7.22 that day. Since his ERA has decreased in every subsequent start. In his four starts since, Beckett has averaged 6.2 innings per start and has an ERA of 2.67 while going 2-0, and is one blown save from being 3-0 in that stretch.

As for Penny - I addressed him last week, but will run the numbers based on his subsequent start anyway. Penny almost had an extended Spring Training going through his first four games of the season, getting yanked from his fourth start before he could complete three innings. Like Beckett, however, he's seen his ERA drop from 8.66 with every subsequent start since.

His most recent start in Minnesota, during which he was throwing up between innings, was the first since that 2.2 inning start in April in which he failed to pitch six complete innings, getting pulled after getting one out in the sixth. Even so, he's averaged just about 6.1 innings per start, with a 4.40 ERA and 3-1 record.

It's just a guess, but assuming Penny isn't traded, but 15-5 with an ERA around 4.00 isn't unrealistic for him. If Lester can find the groove he was in last season, and Matsuzaka can re-find his form, this can be a tough staff for any team to have to deal with.

If they continue to have issues, don't be surprised to see Clay Buchholz back in the bigs, or John Smolz when he's ready.

Observations

2009-05-21T09:13:00.003-04:00

Not a reflection on the team, per se, but is it just me, or is "D-Backs" a little too close phonetically to "d-bags"?

What a weird twelve months of Boston sports - the Pats win 11 games and miss out on the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. The Red Sox go to game seven in the ALCS before being eliminated. The Celtics and the Bruins make it to game seven in their respective semi-final series. That's a whole lot of close, but no enchilada.

What's the common thread there? Injuries to key players.

Phil Kessel and David Krejci both scheduled off-season surgery the minute the Bruins were bounced from the playoffs, and Aaron Ward played in spite of a broken orbital socket. The Celtics played without Kevin Garnett or Leon Powe, the Sox went deep into the playoffs with injuries to David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Josh Beckett. None of the teams was hit as hard as the Patriots, though, which made a run at the playoffs without starting corners, down to their third string OLB on the right side, at times down to their fourth running back, and of course, sans Tom Brady.

What do they do if any of these teams remained healthy? Sure, it's irrelevant, but it's fun to speculate.

It was nice to see Ortiz finally hit a home run, and what's more, he hit it to the deepest part of Fenway.

Is Brad Penny hitting his stride? Since a somewhat rough outing on April 28 when he gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings (only 4 earned), Penny is 2-1 with one no-decision in for starts, has a 4.26 ERA, while averaging 6.1 innings per start, and has a strike out to walk ratio of 3 to 1 while holding opponents to no home runs during the stretch.

Contrast that to his first four starts during which he was 2-0 with two no-decisions, averaged 4.1 innings per start, had a 8.66 ERA and a strike out to walk ratio of just around 1 to 2 while giving up five homers in the four games.

Sure, Penny hasn't been dominant, but those last four games he's started putting up numbers that are solid - the sort of numbers that could keep him in the rotation if he keeps it up.

Three, it's a magic number...

2009-05-13T09:02:00.003-04:00

Last night the three active Boston area spots teams - Bruins, Celtics, and Red Sox - won their respective games.

The Bruins were first up and the first one's done, winning their playoff game to knot their series with the one-time Whalers at three games a piece. By the time the Carolina Hurricanes scored their second goal, the B's already had a three-goal cushion. The Bruins have now won two straight after dropping three. They are now 3-0 against the 'Canes when scoring at least three goals and 0-3 when the 'Canes have scored at least three goals.

Now the Bruins are returning to Boston and going for a third straight win in order to wrap up the series.

Three...it's a magic number.

The Celtics were second on the docket, for the third time mounting a comeback from a double digit deficit in order to go up on the Magic 3-2. In all three of the games in which Boston trailed by more than ten the winning margin has averaged 3.3 points. In the three games Boston is 2-1. With Orlando returning home for a third game in Florida and their backs against the wall, the pressure is squarely on the Magic.

Speaking of three, a beat up and bloodied Celtics team is doing it not just sans Kevin Garnett, a member of the team's nouveau Big Three of Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen, but without their second option at the position - Leon Powe. This has left them with their third option at the power forward - Glenn "Big Baby" Davis.

They are doing it with the two aforementioned forwards on the bench with knee injuries, and with their point guard playing on two bad ankles.

Three times in this series a guard not named Ray Allen came up big for the Celtics. In their blowout win Eddie House led all scorers with 31 points including 12 on 4 for 4 three-point shooting. On the night that Davis hit the buzzer-beater, Rajon Rondo scored 21 and led the Celtics in rebounds with 14. Then last night, when Rondo struggled and got into foul trouble, Stephon Marbury may have scored only 12, but it was all in the fourth quarter, igniting the Celtics' 33 point fourth quarter.

Three...it's a magic number.

Over on the West Coast in a third different city the Red Sox were busy giving up one run every three innings only to score three in the last two to complete the comeback win. The Sox used three relievers over the last three innings to hold the Angels in check while the Sox finally got to the Angels' third reliever of the night for their third run off the Angels' bullpen with the winning knock coming from Jason Varitek in the bottom third of the Sox' order.

Yup, three...it's a magic number.

Where to start...

2009-05-11T19:22:00.003-04:00

Okay, so I've been incommunicado for a couple of weeks - that doesn't mean I haven't been paying attention.

Mixed in with all the articles - magazines, the Brewing News and such - there have been a couple of weeks of interesting New England Sports. Jason Bay is tearing it up for Boston, a wounded Celtics team is looking like they might arrange for a date with the Cavaliers, the Bruins are fighting their way out of a hole, and our old friend Manny is being Fe-Maley.

I don't know what's going on with Red Sox pitching, but Josh Beckett looked better in his recent outing against the Rays than he has all season, but he still had the rough inning. Well, rough-ish. Somehow, in spite of less than sterling starts to the season from Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Brad Penny, the Sox still have managed to win 20 games, good for second best in the American League and tied for the third best record in the majors.

Currently de-facto Ace Tim Wakefield, yes, you read that right, is leading the team with 20 percent of the team's wins and a 2.93 ERA. Mixed in there Wake has had the pitching staff's only two complete games.

One of the other encouraging things about the Red Sox - even though they have played almost 25 percent of their games without Kevin Youkilis, with David Ortiz batting a measly .224 and Jason Varitek picking up where he left off last season with a rousing .227 average, the team is second in the majors in RBI's and runs scored in large part to Jason Bay who leads the team and is second in both the American League and the Majors with 34 RBI's. Bay is also tied for third in the AL with nine home runs. Bay hasn't done it without help.

He's been helped by a now healthy Mike Lowell. Lowell is second on the team with 28 RBI's and six home runs.

Good to see in the absence of a functional Big Papi.

Speaking of Papi, it seems I'm not the only one who doesn't buy his former battery mate's explanation for utilizing a female fertility drug/hormone. It seems almost no one believes that Manny was taking HCG to increase his sperm count. An aging slugger whose production had slipped for two and a third seasons before forcing a trade, suddenly goes on a freakish tear with his new team at an age when no one (that isn't juicing) has ever gotten better.

Do the math.

I'm not saying it isn't possible he was juicing before last season - hell, it would certainly explain some of the boneheaded mood swings and inexplicable behavior.

It took long enough, but it was nice to see the Bruins finally show up for another game in their series against the one-time Whalers. Hopefully it's not to late.

Is it just me, or are the Celtics like a zombie movie at this point? Bodies keep going down, but they just keep coming and coming and coming. Who would really have believed that Glenn "Big Baby" Davis, Eddie House and Rajon Rondo would be the weapons other teams had to account for?

I'm still not convinced that the Celtics have the horses to make it to the finals, but I don't know that I would be all that surprised if they do. Chicago pushed them to the brink, Orlando had a chance to stick a dagger in them and couldn't.

Each series thus far the experts have predicted the Celtics' demise due to match-up issues. If they survive Orlando the talk is going to be about how the Celtics are old and tired from their long series against Orlando, and their even longer one against the Bulls. They will talk about who defends who and how the Cavs have been rested and how they have been destroying their opponents. And all of it will be true - they should cause match-up problems with the Celtics, and they should be Boston handily.

I'm just not convinced it's going to happen that way.

I'm not saying that I think the Celtics are going to make it to the finals. I think it's unlikely, particularly given the team's injuries. But I don't think that it's going to be the cakewalk that Cleveland's first two series have been.

The Cardiac Kids

2009-04-29T06:39:00.003-04:00

I'm not a big basketball fan. I don't watch a whole lot of it until the playoffs come around - and even then, I watch a whole lot less than most basketball fans.

That said, with the exception of the one blow-out win, the Celtics aren't making this easy on their fan-base. Through five playoff games the Celtics and bulls have played four overtime periods following the end of regulation three times. In all but one game the margin of victory has been three points or less. I could be wrong, but I would venture to say that this hasn't ever happened before in a contest between the two and seven seeds in the NBA playoffs.

There's a chance that the results would be different if Kevin Garnett were on the floor, but with the way the Bulls are playing, I'm not convinced that would be true. Maybe one of the other close games swings in the favor of the Celtics, but I don't know that they would have opened up a big lead on Chicago even with the big man in the middle.

Over on the diamond -

So the Sox were handed their first loss in eleven games. Not surprisingly, it came during a Brad Penny start. Penny failed to make it out of the third inning, giving up seven runs (four earned), which has put him on a pace for roughly one earned run per inning worked.

One has to wonder how many more starts Penny will get before he gets yanked from the starting rotation.

The Penny signing I still maintain was a smart signing. For his career he has generally had an ERA between 3.00 and 4.75 and over the course of the previous nine seasons has averaged 10.5 wins per season. That included last year's off year when Penny had an ERA over 6.00 and started fewer than 20 games for the first time in his career.

Additionally, Penny signed a small money contract of $5 million that can earn an additional $3 million in performance bonuses: $500,000 each for 160 innings or 55 games as pitcher, 170-65 and 180-75; $500,000 for 190 innings or 35 games finished, and $1 million for 200 innings or 50 games finished. Right now I would say odds are he won't earn those incentives unless he turns it around soon.

My guess, if he struggles through his next four or five starts, and Daisuke Matsuzaka comes back strong, that Penny will end up on the DL with "arm fatigue" like Matsuzaka did and that Justin Masterson will get a few more turns in the rotation.

Bon Voyage, Ellis Hobbs...

I sincerely wish Ellis Hobbs the best as he moves onto a new career in Philadelphia. Hobbs will be remembered by many, quite unfairly, as being the goat in the Super Bowl against the Giants. At the end of the game, Hobbs - playing with a pulled groin and a badly damaged shoulder - was asked to cover Plaxico Burress on the game deciding play.

Twice earlier in the same drive, however, Asante Samuel screwed the pooch...badly. Samuel had a game-clinching interception go through his hands on one play, and was the cover guy on David Tyree on the helmet catch. Samuel can be seen in certain angles on the play jogging behind Tyree rather than running with him. Had Samuel been where he was supposed to be, it's unlikely that Tyree would have come down with the ball on that third down play.

Good luck Ellis, you played hard for us and your kick returns were things of beauty.

And a final gift for my football fan readers -

Tidbits

2009-04-28T09:52:00.005-04:00

Congrats to Mackenzie Brown, the 12-year old little leaguer from Bayonne who recently tossed a perfect game. It was the first in the history of that little league. She mowed down the entire team she faced - all boys - and in so doing, she got to throw out the first pitch at Saturday's game between the Mets and Nats at CitiField.

The Sox have now won 11 in a row. I can't help but think it's because a 42 year-old knuckleballer put the team on his shoulders when they needed someone to do it, and were it not for that near no-no by Tim Wakefield 11 games ago, the team might still be struggling.

Another note regarding the pitching - Jonathan Papelbon is on pace for 40 saves this season. Former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito could have close to 20, playing Jesse Orosco to Papelbon's Roger McDowell. Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen were tied for second on the team last season with two a piece to Paps' 41. From 1985-88, the wacky McDowell averaged 20 saves per season for the Mets while Orosco, the older veteran, averaged 18 per season as a complimentary piece. While not quite the same, it will be the first time since Papelbon became the team's closer that another pitcher has reached double digits in saves - providing the pace continues. The last time another pitcher even had more than five saves as a member of the Sox was when Mike Timlin racked up nine saves in 2006.

It's been nice to see the Red Sox bats come to life over the last eleven games. Through the first eight, it was as though they were still in extended Spring Training. If the Sox miss the playoffs by a game or two, that 2-6 start will weigh heavily on the team.

One draft note - I have to say that I'm surprised. I really thought that if Clay Matthews, Jr. were available when the Pats were picking that he would be a member of the Patriots today. The flip side - while the team's last two drafts have only been okay, this is a team that has averaged 12 wins per season since 2001, and has missed the playoffs only once in that time - last year when they still won 11 games. So...what do I know?

Cashing out

2009-04-27T11:12:00.003-04:00

It was a metaphorical jolly stomping in the Fens - an early season referendum on the moves made by Yankees' GM Brian Cashman.

The Sox beat the Yanks in every conceivable way over a three game stretch - out-slugging, out pitching, and just plain out-executing the highest paid team in the majors. The Yankees, with over $200 million in annual salary (since the start of the 2005 season the Steinbrenners have spent over $1 billion on the team and seen their record slide) - again - the Bombers are off to a 9-9 start, have the worst bullpen in baseball, and have the worst overall ERA of any pitching staff in the majors.

Here's what else $200 million has bought New York -

A team outscored 25-16 in three games by their arch-rival.

A team that saw 11 runs and two leads evaporate when the bullpen entered the game.

A team whose second biggest free-agent pitching acquisition was smoked for eight earned after being spotted a 6-0 lead.

A team that saw home stolen on them with two outs in a close game. Let's face it - that last one shows a complete lack of respect for the Yankees. There's no aura left, they're just another team.

And to compound matters - the Red Sox don't even have the second highest payroll in baseball - they're fourth (and a lot closer to being seventh than they are to being third). They lost ugly, are unable to hold a lead, and just look brutal in the field (great play at first by the sure-handed Mark Texiera, huh?).

Anyone else wondering which Celtic team is going to show up for game five? The one that's shot ugly in the close games, or the one that dismantled the Bulls on their home-court in game three?

Kudos to the Bruins for moving on. It would be nice to see Boston land the Stanley Cup before the end of the decade to get that final jewel in the championship crown for the big four. They do it, that will mean that between 2001 and now the city will be home to three Super Bowls, two World Series, an NBA (I still think a second one of these is unlikely this year) and an NHL championship. Not bad.

Dirty Sanchez

2009-04-21T20:35:00.002-04:00

Okay, so maybe I shouldn't have gone there, but I want to address the soaring stock of USC's Mark Sanchez...

A lot of teams seem to be falling over themselves for this kid since the Combine.

Yes, he says the right things, and is evidently very personable, but the odds are against him as a successful starting quarterback in the NFL.

His supporters will point out that he started for USC - a pro-style offense - that he started at USC while Matt Cassel did not, that he lost only one game in his only full season as a starter. But that's really the problem - he's had only one full season. That's been a real trap for teams - scouts get one year looking at a guy who might put up great numbers against mediocre competition. I will come back to Cassel.

Consider - Michael Vick started for two seasons in college and never had a completion percentage as high as 59 percent. That's translated to a completion percentage below 54 in the NFL.

Akili Smith had only one full season in college as a starter and the Bengals made him a number one pick back in 1999. He was 3-14 in the NFL and out of the league in four seasons.

There's actually a long list of college short timers that went high and ended up NFL busts. The lack of information works to a player's favor and against the teams.

Now, onto the Cassel conundrum. People will point out that Cassel, without a college start, is a reason that Sanchez can be successful. While people will argue that, it's not an accurate comparison. Cassel, like quarterbacks 25 years ago, went through the sort of apprenticeship process that was common around the league. Cassel spent four preseasons preparing, three full seasons of practice reps with a professional team, lining up against professional defenses, and even appeared in 14 regular season professional games, racking up 22 completions on 39 attempts before getting his season as a starter. It's not the same as getting a season against college competition.

I'm not saying that Sanchez can't or won't be successful in the NFL. What I am saying is that if he comes into a team and is expected to be the starter when he gets there, then it's highly unlikely that he'll have a good career. If he can go someplace and sit a couple of years and learn the pro-game, he'll be much more likely to be successful.

Given the way quarterbacks are just thrown to the wolves, I have to say I have my doubts.

Getting drafty and some weekend observations...

2009-04-20T12:14:00.004-04:00

I'm not a big draft guy.

In spite of how much I enjoy football, I'm not one of those guys who sits down and spends hours watching the draft. I'll flip to it, check the ticker, see who the Patriots picked, but I'm not going to wait and see - in part because I'm not really a college football guy.

That said, I find certain things related to the draft fascinating.

Let's start with the Combine...

Overall, I don't really believe this to be a useless exercise, but I do think the format and some of the perceptions surrounding it to be flawed. The idea that someone should slip precipitously due to a bad 40 time is silly, unless there are mitigating circumstances.

Let's face it, most of these guys teams already have two to four years worth of film on, unless they couldn't crack the line-up until their final year of college. Unless a guy shows up fat, out of shape, and acts like a bone-head, the workout numbers are pointless. The idea that a player can improve their positioning based on a great workout as opposed to what they did on the field is foolish. Some of the biggest draft busts were workout warriors at the Combine. Anyone remember Mike Mammula, the defensive end out of BC? He vaulted himself into the top ten with a monster performance at the Combine, when, realistically, he would likely have been better off as a late first or second round pick - expectations would have been different, and possibly his career as a result.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have the attendees workout. To the contrary, I believe it allows a team to determine the dedication of the player, but I think much too much stock is given to the numbers that come out of these workouts. And some team is going to make someone a much higher pick in the draft than he deserves because of it.

Sox it to 'Em...

Evidently the Orioles are the tonic for what ails 'em. The Red Sox, coming off a weak start to the season got strong starts from Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Tim Wakefield after starting the season 2-6 - and one solid start from Josh Beckett (who continues to struggle with the big inning), the Sox have fought their way back to a 7-6 record. Coincidently, the Salem Red Sox (A ball), met with Frederick Keys for a three game set on Friday, and swept the Orioles A-level affiliate.

A few quick observations -

Lester reportedly looked like the pitcher that was the de facto ace of the staff last season. Hopefully the first two games was just Lester finding his footing in the new season - if so, then the Sox shouldn't have any issues with the starting staff moving forward.

As much as a like what Daisuke Matsuzaka potentially brings to the mound, I have to admit that he makes me nervous as the number two starter. There's something about the way he runs counts up that reminds me a little too much of Heathcliff Sclocumb. Yes, he's better than Slocumb, but his inneficiency tends to be a little nerve wracking. Masterson, on the other hand, filling in for Dice, was quite efficient in walking only two over 5 1/3 innings.

Wakefield's a monster asset. Sure, knuckleballers are the Russian-roullette revolvers of the pitching world, but Wakefield's complete game against the A's before the off-day at the end of last week gave the bullpen a much needed rest, and was the catalyst for what's happening now.

Speaking of Wake, you gotta love the way George Kottarras is calling the game when Wake is pitching. I would love to see if he could work the batting average a bit with some more starts - see if he's the Sox starting back-up of the future.

The jury's still out regarding his bat, but I like what I'm seeing of Nick Green in the field.

One final note...

The Yankees can't be happy that Chien-Ming Wang has been beaten like a cheap pinata this season. With no options, Wang would have to pass through waivers to work out his problems in the minors. What team would claim a pitcher that's 0-3 with a 34.50 ERA over six innings spanning three starts?

Sure, there's someone likely to claim him off waivers, but the Yankees aren't going to let that happen. The problem is, after his four out eight earned run start, what do the Yankees do about him?

Minor activities and scheduling thoughts

2009-04-16T21:04:00.003-04:00

Friday night in Frederick, MD, a short drive from the Smith homestead, is going to be a fun one. Frederick is the home to the Single A Frederick Keys - part of the Carolina League, and opponent to the Salem Red Sox, who happen to be in town this weekend.

When I first moved to the area the Wilmington Blue Rocks were the Red Sox affiliate that played the Keys, and then the Blue Rocks changed their major league affiliate, leaving me sans Sox prospects to watch. This weekend I get to watch five of the Sox top 20 prospects - Ryan Kalish, Luis Exposito, Yamaico Navarro, Che-Hsuan Lin, and Kyle Weiland - as well as Jonathan Paplebon's brother Josh.

I'll be at the game at Harry Grove Stadium on Friday night with the family, but will probably leave long before the end of the game (hard to stay till the end with a 20-month old), but it's always a fun time. My seven-year old loves the kids' zone with the carousel, and my wife loves the fact that the stadium serves beer from both of the town's brew pubs.

It'll be my first time to the stadium this season. For those of you baseball fans who have never made it to a minor league game, I highly recommend it.

Pats Schedule...

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the strength of schedule that people talk about at this time of year is a faulty way to view the difficulties of the coming season. It has no bearing - before last season the Dolphins were a one win team, this season they go in having won 11, the previous season was no predictor of future success.

Based on last season's results, the Pats have the third hardest schedule in the NFL. That said - Miami is sneaking up on no one this season, and while it's possible they might repeat their 11 win performance that won them the AFC East last season, I don't think that they're going to surprise anyone with the Wildcat offense in 2009 and they'll slide. The Jets currently have no quarterback, and key players on the Bills are going to start the season suspended, putting Buffalo into an early hole. And that's just the AFC East. There are definitely issues with some of the other teams as well - are Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan going to have surprise seasons again? I don't think so.

I could go on, but I'm going to address another interesting quirk in the schedule. What happens when the Pats hit the bad weather months of November and December? Let's look at the schedule...

After the bye week at the beginning of November in week 8, the Pats play out the string as follows:

Sun 11/8/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Dolphins	WBZ / CBS
Sun 11/15/2009	8:20 PM	@	Colts	WHDH / NBC
Sun 11/22/2009	4:15 PM	vs	Jets	WBZ / CBS
Mon 11/30/2009	8:30 PM	@	Saints	WCVB / ESPN
Sun 12/6/2009	8:20 PM	@	Dolphins	WHDH / NBC
Sun 12/13/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Panthers
Sun 12/20/2009	1:00 PM	@	Bills	WBZ / CBS
Sun 12/27/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Jaguars	WBZ / CBS
Sun 1/3/2010	1:00 PM	@	Texans	WBZ / CBS

So - in New York, at home, in Houston, at Indy, at home, at home, in New Orleans, at home, at Buffalo.

With the exception of the game at Buffalo in December, the bad weather games the Pats really face are at home in December against the Panthers, and Jaguars, and maybe the November contest against the Jets. Otherwise the Pats are playing in warm climates, or domes. At first glance that might not seem to be important, but for anyone that remembers the way the Pats passing game slowed down at the tail end of the season during their 16-0 run, they might want to think about how Tom Brady and the receiving corps might thrive in some of these late-season contests.

Fewer late season games in cold and wind might mean for a more prolific late season offense, helping to keep the defense off the field.

Back again...

2009-04-16T06:10:00.002-04:00

So, after a weekend at the 'rents house with all the siblings and assorted nieces, and a week wherein I've been working on an article for a local business magazine, I finally have some time to look at some of the current sports stories...

Boy did the Sox, and the bullpen need that start from Tim Wakefield. Wake had the knuckleball working so well he took a no-hitter into the eighth only a day after Terry Francona was forced to use six relievers due to the fact that Daisuke Matsuzaka couldn't get past the first inning.

While it was good to get the win, I think whether the team won or lost was irrelevant. The fact that Wake gave the team a complete game, however, was huge, and needed more than anything else.

If the Celtics don't get a reasonably healthy Kevin Garnett back...well, let's just say I don't see the team making it to the finals. They got absolutely waxed by the Cavaliers, and eked out a win against a far inferior Sixers team. Playing like that right now could get them ousted in the first round.

That's one hell of a schedule that the Patriots are facing this season. Based on their opponents' records from last season, the Pats have the third hardest road to the post season based on strength of schedule facing only two teams that had a sub-.500 record last season, and only two other teams that had a record as bad as .500.

That said, I would like to note that, for all of that, the strength of schedule as a metric for the difficulty of season means nothing at this time of year - zip. nada. zilch. There are plenty of fans that buy into, though. Last season the Pats started the season with the easiest strength of schedule based on the fact that the teams they were facing were 99-157 in 2007 with games against only 4 of 2007's playoff teams. Those same teams improved by 24 games last season to reflect an aggregate record of 123-133 with games against six of playoff teams, including contests against both of the Super Bowl contestants. That moved the Patriots into the middle of the pack in regards to strength of schedule by the end of the season.

CC Rider

2009-04-06T21:55:00.001-04:00

Yesterday was a good day for me.

I finished my taxes only to find I was getting a big, fat refund, and CC Sabathia looked about how I expected him to.

The Yankees' two big off-season acquisitions for the just north of Manhattan Project - Fat Man (Sabathia), and Little Boy (Mark Teixiera), were ugly in their debuts for the Bronx Bommahs. Fat Man's return to the American League, a place where his career stats have always screamed number two starter, was uninspired. The Yankees would-be-ace failed to get out of the fifth inning, giving up six earned runs in four-and-a-third innings for a rousing 12.46 ERA .

I don't expect that Sabathia will be this bad during the course of the season. But I also don't expect him to be good. He dominated the hitter's B-League, tearing up the NL Central, but has only thrice in his eight seasons had an ERA below 3.60 over the course of a full season. And only twice in the AL has he managed an ERA below that number (last season he was at 3.83 before the trade). Additionally, this is a man coming off the two highest inning total of his career (241 in 2007, and 253 in 2008), and he's not exactly a fitness freak. And I addressed that in a previous post when I wrote -

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

As for Mark Teixiera, I expect he will likely be in line with his career averages when the smoke clears, but putting up a big donut in four at bats, leaving four men on and only getting on base once - not the start that Hank and Hal were hoping for, I'm sure.

An absolute mugging

2009-04-03T08:58:00.004-04:00

My initial thought was to describe the Bears trade for Jay Cutler an absolute mugging - the bears traded Kyle Orton and this year's first and third round picks as well as next year's first rounder for Cutler and Denver's fifth round pick this year. My wife pointed out that when one is mugged that the muggee doesn't look at the mugger and say, "here, take my credit cards and cash, and I'll put up some token resistance by making a half-hearted effort to scratch your face."

She's right. No. This was more like Denver telling the Bears to bend over and drop trou, and the Bears saying back, "with Vaseline or without?"

This was an absolute violation of the Catholic priest variety.

As mediocre as Kyle Orton has been, Cutler hasn't actually been significantly better. A quick look -

In three seasons Orton has played in 33 games while Cutler has played in 37 games. I will give Orton's actual numbers and his 37 game projections...

Yes, Cutler has a better completion percentage and put up more yardage - 62.5 percent and 9024 yards to Orton's 55.3 and 5319 yards (5964 over 37 games), but Cutler has also been throwing to the likes of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Javon Walker and Rod Smith. Orton's two best targets in the last three seasons would both be picked after any one of the four above - Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. The trade will answer the question as to whether the receivers made the QB or vice versa with these two.

But let's look at some other telling stats...

Cutler has thrown 37 interceptions in 37 games, Orton has had 27 in 33. Cutler has an average of 11.8 yards per catch to Orton's 10.5.

But here are some of the really important ones - Orton is 21-12 with and was instrumental in getting the Bears to at least one playoff appearance. Cutler is 17-20 with no playoff appearances. Cutler's best season was 8-8. Orton's? 10-5.

Considering that Cutler was drafted 11th and Orton 106th, I would expect more from Cutler than this.

And if I were a Bears fan this morning, I would be buying something to sooth that burning feeling coming from my sphincter.

Losing the game of chicken...

2009-04-02T08:48:00.004-04:00

or Beware the Idiots of March...

A little translation of professional athlete speak - I want the team to show it's committed to me. Translation - I want to see more money in a new contract.

From New York Newsday -

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on the night of March 15, the day after Josh McDaniels met with [Jay] Cutler and his agent, Bus Cook, that the pair requested a trade. Which the Broncos verified.

"The Denver Broncos confirm that Jay Cutler has requested a trade," a team spokesman told the AP March 16.

Cutler, during what seemed an unambiguous interview, told Mortensen March 15, "Really, it's best for me to move on."

From a Fox report -

"I was surprised they decided to trade me this soon," Cutler said. "I didn't want to get traded. This wasn't me. (The Broncos) had been going back and forth saying things, wanting me to be their quarterback and then they didn't."

"I really didn't want this. I love Denver. I really like my teammates. I didn't want it to get this far."

If Jay Cutler has any credibility in any locker room anywhere ever again, I will be sorely disappointed in his future teammates. So...was he bluffing in order to get a new contract? Did he think that by showing up his new coach and GM that he was showing his Broncos teammates his sterling leadership qualities? Is this guy really this big an idiot?

Some really quick hits...

Good win for the Celtics against a Bobcats team that's beginning to peak at the right time for a playoff run.

Not really surprised that Clay Buchholz was sent to Pawtucket to start the season, but I will be surprised if we don't see him in Fenway again sometime this season.

Tommy Lasorda just doesn't get it. In his defense of nephew Mike Piazza (related to the recent allegations of steroid use), Lasorda said that Piazza busted his ass in the weight room. That was part of his reasoning that his nephew couldn't have been using. I guess he doesn't know that steroids don't magically give one muscles, that you have to spend time in the weight room or you just get fat. He also uses the idea that Piazza is church-going in his defense of his nephew.

Let's get something straight here - just because someone is inherently a good person, or regularly attends church, that doesn't exempt them from doing something bad or stupid. Andy Pettitte, by all accounts, is a very religious guy, and a good guy in the locker room. Nailed for HGH. Then of course history is littered with religious people that just were not good human beings - take Tomás de Torquemada or Hitler (by all accounts, extremely religious). And please don't think I'm comparing Piazza to Hitler or the grand inquisitor of the Spanish Inquisition - I'm only trying to point out that religiousness is no defense and no guarantee of a person being good.

It looks like Donte Stallworth is getting charged by Miami authorities. It sounds like it's what I previously called. This should surprise no one, and should Stallworth work out a deal that avoids jail time, he's still going to miss games due to whatever suspension is handed down for his lapse in judgement.

April Fools

2009-03-31T07:44:00.003-04:00

We are on the precipice of a pagan holiday, once a celebration of the start of the spring planting season, All Fool's Day has developed into a day of practical jokes both erudite (see George Plympton's "Curious Case of Sid Finch") and ridiculous (see the idiot that put a whoopee cushion under his boss's ass). In honor of the day, I want to address some of the biggest fools we've had to deal with as sports fans in recent days.

Here five of my favorites. They are in no particular order -

Michael Vick - As noted here yesterday, this fool thinks he's going to come back from his legal issues and garner a contract worth $10 million per season as a quarterback in the NFL. That's the number he used to write his bankruptcy plan, the plan he's using to repay creditors. This is a man that, at best, might get a job as a back-up quarterback, and it's not even assured that his jail time is done given the fact that he may have plundered his entertainment marketing company, MV7's pension plan to pay some of his debts.

Plaxico Burress - This fool derailed the Giants Super Bowl hopes when he shot himself in the leg. In a nightclub. With an unregistered (illegally owned) handgun. Now he's in court, trying to work out a plea deal (adjourned until June 15). I guarantee that any plea will include jail time, and the man will miss at the very least a part of the season due to the impending suspension.

Alex Rodriguez - To put it simply, this is a man that can't get out of his own way. In the last year he has been caught cheating on his wife, cheating the game of baseball, and cheating the fans. He's engaged in interviews that, within days of each other, contradicted his previous interviews. Heap that on top of a guy whose batting average, over the course of his career, is at its lowest in September (.285), and October (.250), (in no other month is his batting average below .299) you have a paper lion who needs to figure out how not to be his own worst enemy.

Pacman Jones - It's hard to know where to start with this bonehead. To put it succinctly, once thought to be one of the up and coming corners when with Tennessee, Jones' legal issues have made him radioactive around the league, but not so much so that Dallas wasn't willing to give him a flyer. After a lackluster season with the Cowboys, combined with his legal issues, Jones has failed to generate any interest - hell he's failed to generate even rumors of interest - in his services, and may have effectively worked his way out of the league.

Al Davis - Once the owner of the NFL's resident bad boys, and once a winning coach in his own right, Davis has become the league's unintentional jester. Changing coaches far more frequently than he changes 1970's jumpsuits, Davis has created instability at the team's most important position (coach), drafted poorly, undermined the authority of his coach, and has invariably blamed his team's failings on the coaching. The only common thread in his team's failures - Al Davis. It doesn't take a genius to figure this one out.

Celebrate the fools, it's their time.

Ankiel biter...

2009-03-30T18:04:00.003-04:00

By the age of 20 Rick Ankiel had logged 208 innings pitched over the course of 40 appearances (35 starts) that spanned his rookie season and a September call-up when he was 19. He did it all with a very respectable 3.46 ERA.

He was a promising young pitcher with enormous upside. He was the sort of talent that general managers expect to be anchoring a staff by the precocious age of 25.

Instead, Ankiel melted down, wilting under the pressure of being the rising star with only 11 more appearances spanning only 36 total innings during the 2001 and 2004 seasons. During that time he gave up 25 earned runs (6.25 ERA), with a whopping 66 base runners. He couldn't have found the strike zone even if he were pitching to a line-up with the likes of Shaq, Yao Ming, and Robert Parrish.

Why, you might ask, is Ankiel, who disappeared from the mound by end of the 2004 season relevant right now. It's summed up with two words - Dontrelle Willis.

Between the 2007 and 2008 seasons the then free agent pitcher was considered the big prize of the hot stove season. On forum after forum there were members of Red Sox Nation calling for Theo Epstein to run out and trade for the D-Train. Readers here may recall, I railed against this, in no small part due to the fact that Willis was looking for Ace money in an extension, and I didn't think the man could carry a staff for a season.

Now, a little more than a year removed from the trade and contract extension that now has netted Willis another $22 million over the next two seasons, the pitcher finds himself on the verge of being out of the minors - even though the Tigers are on the hook for the $22 mil.

Willis, in his time on Detroit's dime will have earned $29 million for pitching a total of 24 innings. Twenty-four innings of brutal, bullpen destroying starts during which he gave up 25 runs.

While I didn't think Willis was any better than a third starter at best, and I saw his career heading in the wrong direction, I didn't think he would go Rick Ankiel and just drive his career off the edge of a cliff a-la Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. As for the medical excuse they came up with - I might be wrong about this, but something sounds really fishy about an anxiety disorder being diagnosed by blood tests. Never heard of that before.

The only question that remains is can Willis reinvent himself like Ankiel? If he wants to continue in baseball, then he needs to.

Wrapping the weekend

2009-03-30T08:11:00.002-04:00

Condolences to Texans running back Ryan Moats who had to deal with a special level of stupidity last week while his mother-in-law lay dying in a hospital bed. If you click on the link and read the article, take the time to watch the footage of what happened.

Currently, the officer who detained Moats is on a paid suspension while the incident is under investigation.

My own opinion - if a police officer commits an act so egregious that it merits a suspension, then the person shouldn't get paid for getting to stay at home. I'm not saying the money should be lost either, should the officer be found to have acted properly - I think that the officer's pay should be held in trust until the end of any investigation. Should the officer be cleared, then that person receives their back pay. If the officer is found guilty, then the pay is forfeit. As the system is, the moron who detained Ryan Moats is, in essence, getting a paid vacation for what he did.

That's just ridiculous.

Brad Wilkerson was informed this weekend by Terry Francona that he would not be making the team. I still say this was a good signing. It was a low risk signing with the potential for a big payoff if Wilkerson reverted to his earlier career form. He didn't and now he's gone without the team in the hole for a big paycheck.

Michael Vick lives in a fantasy world...

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution,

The embattled Atlanta Falcons quarterback is hoping to earn as much as $10 million a year or more, according to court filings in his bankruptcy case. Under the plan he submitted to the court, Vick would keep the first $750,000 of his annual income over the next five years. After that, a percentage would go to his creditors based on a sliding scale.

I don't know who he's talking to that is telling him he'll be able to earn $10 million per year, but that number isn't the least bit realistic.

There are a few basic things that Vick needs to realize - one; he's never going to make that sort of annual salary in the NFL again. Two; few, if any, teams will give him a shot as their quarterback. Three; he's going to be on a really short leash wherever he goes, if anywhere. Like Pacman Jones short. He screws up, he misses a meeting and forgets to call the office, he accidentally spits on the coaches shoes, he's gone.

This isn't just about the incarceration - this is about a guy who has failed his first team in the NFL on every conceivable level. The quarterback is supposed to be the face of the franchise and no team is going to want to market a convicted felon, animal abuser, and drug user to families in their fan base. Nor are they going to want to have to deal with the hard sell that's trying to tell 52 other guys in the locker room that they need to follow the guy that didn't want to put the extra time in when he played for Atlanta, because he had illegal enterprises that took precedent over the team. I could go on, but I think I made my point.

Digging the hole ever deeper

2009-03-26T06:22:00.002-04:00

So Michael Vick is back in the news again, and yet again, it's for the wrong reasons.

I have linked to a reasonable, but incomplete AP article on the fact that Vick is being targeted by federal authorities again. This time for illegally dipping into MV7's, his company's, pension plan to the tune of $1.7 million in order to benefit himself. Those benefits included using at least a portion of the money to pay restitution ordered as part of his dog fighting conviction/plea.

As the trustee of a company's pension plan, this is a big federal no no.

The AP story fails to mention how. So let's address that...

When Vick entered his plea to the dog fighting charges, he was a first time offender, and as such, got off with a light sentence based on sentencing guidelines. Now the U.S. Department of Labor is alleging that Vick, in order to address one federal offense, committed a second one. The law that Vick allegedly violated is US Code: Title 18, Part 1, Chapter 31, Section 664 and reads as follows -

Any person who embezzles, steals, or unlawfully and willfully abstracts or converts to his own use or to the use of another, any of the moneys, funds, securities, premiums, credits, property, or other assets of any employee welfare benefit plan or employee pension benefit plan, or of any fund connected therewith, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.

As used in this section, the term “any employee welfare benefit plan or employee pension benefit plan” means any employee benefit plan subject to any provision of title I of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.

It is interesting to note that Vick's bankruptcy does not absolve him of his fiscal responsibility to any pension plan he set up for his employees. And, if the allegation is true, Vick, in essence, stole $1.7 million from his employees, apparently with the aid of two of his fiscal advisers.

This severely complicates things going forward for Vick. According to the AP report -

Vick's plan for paying his creditors is based largely on his intention to resume his NFL career. Vick was suspended indefinitely after his 2007 indictment, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said he will review Vick's status after he is released.
The Falcons still hold the contract rights to Vick but have said they will try to trade him. Vick's bankruptcy plan would allow him to keep the first $750,000 of his annual pay. After that, a percentage would go to his creditors based on a sliding scale.

In essence, Vick's future earnings are already being garnished to pay off his debts and the plan is based on the idea that he will return to playing football. As if Goodell didn't have enough ammo in regards to Vick between the dog fighting, lying to the NFL, and getting nailed for drug use while awaiting trial, now there's this. With this additional violation of federal statute, not only does it allow Roger Goodell to extend the suspension, it also looks like there may very well be additional jail time for Vick, whose stupidity seems to know no bounds.

And before I have the occasional meat-head that yells that it's a racial thing and the government is just trying to keep a black man down, let's remember that Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Warren Moon have all done quite well in spite of their bone-headed moves, and none of them ended up in jail.

Rapid fire again

2009-03-25T10:18:00.004-04:00

It's been released to the press that the pedestrian struck by Donte Stallworth was not in the crosswalk at the time of the accident, nor was Stallworth driving excessively fast at only ten miles per hour over the speed limit. In spite of reports of intoxication, those two facts might be enough to keep Florida authorities from pursuing the most serious of possible charges - vehicular manslaughter, and it's likely those two facts will keep the wide receiver our of jail.

Anyone else see OLB Clay Matthews III, as a strong candidate for the Pats' first pick in the draft if he's still around at the 23rd pick? The guy's a 6' 3" 246 pound outside backer with sterling blood lines, being the son of former NFL linebacker Clay Matthews, Jr (19 seasons for the Falcons and Browns - including time playing for Bill Belichick), grandson of Clay Matthews (four seasons in the 1950's as an offensive tackle and defensive end for the 49ers), and nephew of former offensive lineman Bruce Matthews (Oilers/Titans, 19 seasons).

It's just a hunch that we'll see him in a Pats uni this year, but I also thought there was a fair chance that the team would make a run at Zack DeOssie given Belichick's familiarity with the family. So, who knows?

Scouting reports from the WBC say that Daisuke Matsuzaka was pounding the strike zone with his fastball and pitching less tentatively than he did during last season. The Diceman wasn't the most dominant pitcher in the tournament, but he wasn't far off in posting a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings. He gave up only four runs on 14 hits along with five walks and 13 strikeouts (making his WHIP 1.30). Not bad for going against (theoretically) the best that the world has to offer.

Should Matsuzaka build off of this, and stay aggressive during the season, the Sox likely have at least four starters that will win at least 12 games between Dice, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Wakefield. If Penny can stay healthy and return to pre-Dodger form, we could be looking at a staff that has four starters winning at least 15 games and a fifth winning at least 12. My guess is that Beckett, Dice and Lester all end up between 16 and 20 wins, Penny between 14 and 16, and Wake at around 12 or 13 (assuming the staff remains reasonably healthy). That means that from the rotation alone we could be looking in the range of 80 wins.

I liked what I saw of George Kottaras in last night's preseason match up against the Yankees.

It looks like Lance Armstrong's come-back bid has been slowed down severely. Armstrong, the single most dominant force in the sport of Cycling - ever - broke his collar bone during a recent stage of the Vuelta of Castilla and Leon race in northern Spain. Some had speculated that this might keep him out of the sport's premier event, the Tour de France.

He'll ride in it, I just don't know that he will be in top form and that he will be able to compete for the yellow jersey.

According to literature, his injury will take six to eight weeks to heal. That would put him on schedule to possibly be healthy, but not particularly competitive in the Giro d'Italia on May 9th - the last major race he can possibly use as a tune-up before the grueling TdF.

Given I thought he, despite his age and the time he had taken off, was the likely favorite going into the Tour before the accident, I think this makes the race more compelling.

Rounding up loose ends...

2009-03-23T08:42:00.003-04:00

By now I'm sure anyone who reads this blog is aware that former Patriots receiver Donte Stallworth was involved in an unfortunate incident recently wherein he struck and killed a pedestrian. At this writing charges have not been filed, but given that his blood alcohol level was well over the legal limit, it is only a matter of time.

At the very least this will result in a suspension for Stallworth, and probably jail time. This is the sort of thing that can potentially serve from 5 to 15 years, depending on what they have determined the degree of the offense to be. I expect a deal to be cut that will either allow Stallworth to stay out of jail, or to serve a minimum amount of time - meaning I don't believe he will be found guilty of vehicular manslaughter as provided by the Florida State Penal Code.

And here are five things I think based on what I have seen the last week -

For all the injuries the Celtics have suffered, I think they have happened with plenty of time for the Green to get healthy. Once healthy, I think that it was more important for the Cavs to get the one seed than the Celtics. Should the current seeded positions remain constant, I believe we'll see the C's play the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the C's steal a game in Cleveland early in the series, then I think the series favors them.
I firmly believe that Junichi Tazawa will make his big league debut this season as a back of the rotation/middle reliever.
This is a guess, but it seems to me that Theo is giving George Kottaras the opportunity to show the organization that he is the heir-apparent to Jason Varitek. My bet would be, given the glut of pitching prospects in the minors, if Kottaras struggles, or at least fails to even show flashes during the regular season, then and only then will we see a trade with Texas consummated for one of their catchers.
I don't think that the Patriots are done with the defensive overhaul - I've said it before and will say it again: Jason Taylor is the most logical and Belichick-ian choice to play opposite Adalius Thomas. He is likely to be signed by the team sometime after the draft and will take less money to go to the Pats just for the chance to win. I also think that Shawn Crable will get a long look in training camp as the future at that same location.
I think Yankee fans are going to have a tough April. The team's best early season player, Alex Rodriguez, is likely to miss the first month of the season, CC Sabathia has huffed and puffed his way to a Spring Training ERA that is dwarfed only by his Michelinman-like physique and their big-name in-the-field acquisition, Mark Texiera, is a notorious slow starter (.259 career hitter for the month of April, his next lowest monthly average - .282 in July). I firmly believe this is a team that's on track to be playing catch-up again, and they will be chasing both the Red Sox and the Rays.

Rapid Fire

2009-03-19T09:02:00.002-04:00

And not the Brandon Lee flick...

A-Rod, known better in some circles as Slappy McBluelips, is in the news again for yet another boneheaded thing. Slappy posed for a series of sultry photos for Details Magazine, which included a shot of the man making out with the person he loves the most - himself.

There are a lot of stupid things he's done - the hand slap, the yell rounding third, the steroids (rumored to go back as far as high school - which would explain no significant spike in his career stats), his series of contradictory explanations regarding the steroids, getting caught with the stripper in Toronto - but somehow I don't see this flying in the locker room.

The more I think about it, the less likely I think Julius Peppers ends up in New England. I believe that the Pats may have called the Panthers to see what it would take, but I also think that the numbers don't add up - yes, signing him would make it likely that some of the other players would have to be allowed to walk, but I also think for Peppers to come into the fold, he would have to take a considerable cut from what he would make as a franchise player. The Pats aren't going to pay more for Peppers than they do for Tom Brady.

That doesn't even take into account that I find it hard to believe that the Pats would pay out big money to someone who has never played the position.

Also, staying with Peppers, for somebody who wants desperately out of Carolina, he's virtually handcuffed himself by not signing the franchise tender. Without the tender signed, Peppers remains a free agent, however no one will touch him due to the compensation that would be owed to the Panthers - two first round picks. As a free agent, Carolina does not actually hold Peppers' rights and cannot trade him, but are handcuffed in free-agency because, until Peppers signs elsewhere, the team has to have the money available on the books in case Peppers signs the tender - so, even though he's not signed, he counts against the cap. How's that for a kick in the nuts - Peppers, in effect, can't get out of Carolina because he hasn't signed the tender, and Carolina can't improve until they're rid of Peppers, and he's not actually under contract.

For my money, I still say the Pats sign Jason Taylor to small money to play opposite Adalius Thomas. I expect the signing won't happen until sometime after the draft.

The Yankees brain trust cannot be happy with the spring that their big acquisition, CC Sabathia, is having. In fewer than eight innings pitched he has an ERA in excess of 7.00. The Yanks went out and spent big money on a pitcher pushing maximum density that racked up 90 innings in his last 12 starts (not including a brutal start in the playoffs against Philly where he failed to get out of the fourth inning). He had more complete games in the second half last season than he has had in any one whole season in his career. I can't help but think the big money for Sabathia over the long term, and possibly even the short-term is a bad idea.

The Celtics have been hit with some injury issues, but I think there's still enough time for them to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Ditto for the Red Sox going into the regular season.

Good luck to all with their brackets.

Pepper pot...

2009-03-17T08:50:00.003-04:00

So, the big rumor right now is that the Pats are on the verge of acquiring Julius Peppers. A lot has to be done before that acquisition is a reality. Even if the Pats and Panthers reach an accord, it will be contingent upon negotiating a new contract with Peppers, who right now is in line to make more than Tom Brady in the coming season.

That's not going to happen - not on the Patriots.

If this does happen, I would say that the trade is probably about a month away. I would be at least a little surprised if the trade happens more than two weeks before the draft actually happens.

But let's take a look at the potential Patriots retooled defense, just for fun...

The Pats had two games in which the Offense was culpable in the demise of the defense due to its inability to stay on the field in those games, and had three other games where the defense either couldn't get off the field due to their lack of pass rush (Chargers, Jets), or the defense's inability to adjust to what the opposing offense was doing (Dolphins).

Some of the issue was pass rush, some was coverage.

The retooled starting line-up (if the Peppers trade works out) will look like this...

Adalius Thomas (OLB) Leigh Bodden (CB)

Richard Seymour (DE)
Jerrod Mayo (ILB) James Sanders (SS/FS)
Vince Wilfork (NT)
Tedy Bruschi (ILB) Brandon Meriweather (SS/FS)
Ty Warren (DE)

Julius Peppers (OLB) Shawn Springs (CB)

Nickel: Ellis Hobbs

With the injuries suffered by the Pats last season at a lot of these positions allowing for significant playing time for Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods, (and the early injury to Shawn Crable) as well as corners Jonathan Wilhite and Mike Richardson, as well as the (re)signings of Eric Alexander, Mike Wright and Tully Banta-Cain, these moves give the Patriots significant depth on defense that they lacked last year.

Additionally, this gives the team two legit cover corners, and a healthy Warren, Thomas, and the addition of Peppers, a solid pass rush. Should the Peppers deal not be consummated, I would expect that Thomas would move to the other side with a likely platoon of Crable and Banta-Cain coming off the backside, unless the Pats sign Jason Taylor. If the Peppers trade happens, I don't think the Pats sign Taylor.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move at safety before preseason.

Other quick thoughts -

Yup, it's official, Jay Cutler is a moron. I said this before, and I will reiterate it - first, it's disingenuous of someone to demand a trade, then get offended when his name comes up in trade talks. Second, I can only hope this idiot gets traded to Detroit.

This guy thinks he should be untouchable, but among starters he had the 6th best QB rating in the AFC alone, behind Matt Cassel (and 16th overall, behind such immortals Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan), 9th best completion percentage (14th in the NFL, behind the likes of Shaun Hill and David Garrard), the 2nd most interceptions (in both the AFC and NFC).

Yes, he logged a lot of yardage last season, but he didn't do it well, and somehow he was a pro-bowler. This is a guy that's a middle-of-the-pack starting quarterback, and he seems to think he's a top five sort of guy.

Best boxing match since the Thrilla in Manilla

2009-03-13T20:44:00.004-04:00

And the biggest ass-whuppin' since the Celtics closed out the final game of last year's NBA finals against L.A. with a 39-point anihilation of the Lakers.

If you haven't seen it, this is must see TV.

This is it (keep clicking on the subsequent parts...best one sided sparring match you will ever watch) -

Buying the groceries

2009-03-11T07:53:00.004-04:00

As I suspected, the Patriots aren't making a big splash, but they are going about signing a number of solid, proven veterans that should help in the short-run, and could potentially help in the long-run.

They have managed to, with four simple signings (and one re-signing), replace Lonnie Paxton who followed Josh McDaniels to Denver, upgrade from Lamont Jordan at running back, keep needed depth along the offensive line while retaining their largest fullback, and significantly upgraded their defensive backfield.

Discounting the Nathan Hodel signing since it's swapping one long-snapper for another, let's take a quick look at each signing and some of the other transactions the Patriots have had to bolster the team, or retain personnel -

Former Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is probably the biggest signing of the bunch. Taylor, while slightly older, represents an upgrade over the talented but erratic Lamont Jordan. Jordan was a solid part of the running back rotation last season, just as Taylor is likely to be this season. Taylor is more apt to be able to pick up the slack as a starter than Jordan, given the fact that Taylor is coming off a career low in attempts (based on playing in at least 10 games) which still would have qualified as Jordan's third highest number of attempts in a season.

While Taylor at 32 is on the downside of his career, he likely still has enough juice left to be a part time impact player.

Russ Hochstein was re-signed and in so doing the team retained one of their most versatile offensive linemen, and with Heath Evans moving on to the Saints, Hochstein moves to the top of the depth chart as the team's blocking back.

On March 5 the Pats traded for Eagles receiver Greg Lewis, a burner who is likely to be the third receiver. Lewis has shown flashes, and has apparent upside, but has yet to show the sort of consistency that Jabar Gaffney gave the third receiver position. If it works out, Lewis gives Tom Brady a speedster who will likely draw single coverage while defenses double up on Wes Welker underneath and Randy Moss on the other side. If Lewis fails to have a breakout season in this offense, it's unlikely that he will ever blossom.

I like the Shawn Springs signing, but was surprised that it was a three year contract. Given his history of injury, I expected a one-year incentive laden contract, maybe with an option. That said, Springs represents an upgrade over what the Patriots had in their backfield last season. Springs also is the sort of veteran presence that Bill Belichick likes to bring in as a player-coach to bring the youngsters along. As an aside, given Buffalo's recent move, Springs was instrumental in holding Terrell Owens to five receptions for 38 yards in the Redskins second meeting with the Cowboys last season.

The signing I like best, however, is the 27-year old Leigh Bodden. Bodden, cut by the Detroit Lions after only one season, previously played for Romeo Crennel's Browns. In Crennel's defense, Bodden excelled - in three seasons under the former Patriots coordinator, and in defenses that were in the bottom half of the rankings, the 6' 1" corner racked up 11 interceptions, 45 tackles, and 177 tackles.

I still say that the Pats sign Jason Taylor before training camp and he comes in to play as a 'tweener D-end/linebacker in order to bolster the pass rush because, like Springs, he's the sort of veteran player that Belichick loves to bring in at a discount.

Other quick thoughts -

Am I the only person out there that thinks Jay Cutler is an idiot - the man demands the Broncos trade him, then gets pissy when they actually try to do so. Am I the only one missing something here? I mean, sure, he threw for 4,526 yards last season, but he also racked up seven interceptions to six touchdowns in the final six games of the season when Denver went 2-4 after starting 6-4. That final stretch included a one touchdown, two interception performance against the Chargers in the final game of the season, the game that would have sealed up the Western Conference and a trip to the playoffs.

Any, and I mean, did anyone out there see the Dominican getting bounced from the World Baseball Classic by the Netherlands of all teams? Anyone? I mean, damn. That was a helluva performance.

The week that Wuz...

2009-03-08T15:36:00.004-04:00

This entry is about the good, the bad, and the ugly - I'm going to start with the ugly. Most of the rest sounds pretty inconsequential after the first item, but this is important...

I'm a regular reader of TheCoffinCorner, written by a fellow New England sports fan by Dave from Portland, ME. Dave and his wife had some tough news this week, and need all the good thoughts that can be sent their way. It's hard to write eloquently about a four-year old girl with cancer, or to make things sound noble. I will keep this simple and straight forward -

I have two daughters, one turned seven on Friday, the other is a year and a half old. I know that if either were diagnosed with cancer, it would be devastating. At best, I can only imagine what Dave is going through. I would not change places with him for the world. But I would like to ask my readers to keep him and his family, but his daughter in particular, in your thoughts, and those of you who are religious, your prayers. Send good karma, vibes and any other positive feelings her way in her fight against rhabdomyosarcoma, a cancer most commonly found in children under five.

Good luck little one, we're all pulling for you.

As for some of the sports news, as trivial as it sounds in light of Dave's current issue...

So...Terrell Owens is now a member of the Bills. This is their answer to the offense that disappeared in the second half of the season - a 36-year old wide receiver whose best days are behind him, who failed to break the 40-yard barrier in eight games last season, who broke 90 yards only three games last season (against the 22nd, and 32nd pass defenses in the league before putting up 103 against the Eagles in a 44-6 loss in the final game of the season...way to have an impact TO). Those three games accounted for 416 of his yards on the season. The other 13 games - 669, or a 51 1/3 yard per game average.

The single smartest thing that the Bills have done with this is protect themselves with a one-year contract.

Here are some of the problems with him, outside of the aforementioned issues (and some elaboration of the above) -

Even the best receivers in the history of the game experience a big drop-off between the ages of 35 and 36, and he already showed last season that he's heading in the wrong direction in regards to being an impact player.
He has been among the league leaders in dropped passes for at least the last three seasons, and I'm willing to bet that if I dug, that goes back much farther.
What happens to an over-the-hill receiver that has trouble with contact come December in Buffalo?
Sure, he's likely to be less trouble over one season, except he's going to an offense that is committed to pounding the ball - What's the over-under for him pitching a fit and ripping a young, not-quite-there QB a new one because he's not getting the ball enough? Embarrassing the coach on the sideline?

Yep, the Bills got 'im. They can have him.

I called it on Shawn Springs. Don't be surprised if, sometime after the draft, Jason Taylor comes in for a visit.

These are the sort of veterans that Belichick likes to have around to teach the young guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Springs parlays an incentive laden one-year deal into a multi-year stay in New England - if he stays healthy this season.

And once again - may everything work out well, Dave, we're thinking of you and yours.

Addition by subtraction

2009-03-05T13:10:00.002-05:00

I won't say that Jerry Jones has learned his lesson - he gets too easily distracted by shiny baubles that have no real substance, but he has certainly done more to improve his team by ridding it of problem children than most teams have done this off-season by signing play makers.

In what has been the worst kept secret of the NFL's hot stove season, the Cowboys have finally parted ways with resident league narcissist Terrell "It's All About Me" Owens, making the Cowboys the third contending team to figure out that Owens, despite an enormous amount of talent, creates more problems than he solves.

Owens is quick to point out that he's not former teammate Pacman Jones, also eliminated in the recent purge, and has not had any off the field incidents. This is true.

However, he's ended up at odds with every coach, and quarterback he's every played with. He's divided every locker room. He has been a difference maker, just not in the way teams have hoped.

Everywhere he has played he has left a smoldering crater of a team.

He was not the difference that got the Eagles over the hump in the early Oughts - people seem to forget he wasn't even available for the playoffs that year. Overall, teams in the post season with Owens are 4-7 and in only three of those eleven games has he exceeded 73 yards in receptions. In the remaining eight playoff games he has averaged 44 yards per game.

For all his talent and his demand to get the ball, Owens was first in the NFC and third overall in the NFL with 10 dropped passes one season removed from leading the league in consecutive seasons with 25 in 2007 and 17 in 2006. For a three year stretch he's averaged 13 drops each season.

That doesn't even take into account the fact that Owens is also coming off a season in which he failed to break 40 yards receiving in eight games and had another two in which he didn't hit 70. The three games in which he approached or exceeded 100 - against Seattle, San Francisco and he had a meaningless 103 yards in the 44-6 embarrassment of a season finale against Philly. No one is confusing the defensive backfields in Seattle and San Fran with anything resembling quality.

Getting rid of the ball demanding distraction, yeah, this team just got better.

Bargain shopping and other thoughts

2009-03-03T08:56:00.003-05:00

After the signings of Fred Taylor and Chris Baker in the wake of the trade that sent Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Kansas City, the Patriots have approximately $16 million in cap space to play with. Realistically, that's not enough with which to make a big splash given the fact that has to account for free-agents and the draft. If you figure half of that goes to the rookie pool and tying up Vince Wilfork to an extension accounts for about half of that (I wouldn't be surprised if they decide that it's either Richard Seymour or Wilfork and they decide it's Wilfork that's the more important player), that leaves about $8 million for free agents. They'll probably try to keep about $2 million to $2.5 million in space heading into the season to cover unemployed veterans for emergency signings.

That leaves between $5 million to $6 million to bring in free agents, which means bargain hunting. Keep in mind that these are rough numbers ganked from http://www.patscap.com/ and I would say that we're looking at a plus or minus about 2 to 2.5 million.

So, who could the Pats get on the cheap - maybe on one year incentive laden deals?

Well, first you have to ask where are they looking to shore up - I'm guessing that we're looking at a receiver or two, a D-end/Linebacker sort, a veteran O-lineman and maybe a couple of defensive backs. I would rank the needs like this -

1. DB
2. Pass rusher
3. WR
4. OL

As such, here are some of the moves I could see the Pats making (not that they will, but none of these would surprise me) -

If Bill Belichick believes he can get them for the minimum plus incentives for games played, I wouldn't be surprised to see either Shawn Springs or Mike Peterson on contracts like that. Peterson, if he can stay healthy, would be a good platoon player to move in and out with Tedy Bruschi. Springs, when healthy, is a highly talented cover corner that can play the league's best receivers one-on-one. Another option to bolster the pass rush, also on an incentive laden contract, is Jason Taylor. I think it's unlikely, and I wouldn't be surprised if he fades into retirement, but I think he would be tempted by what he might see as his best opportunity to go out with a championship. Forget about Lawyer Milloy returning - it's not happening given the fact that the reasons leaked for his release are the same reasons that got him out of New England and Buffalo.

I would also look at maybe Darren Sharper or the likes of Daven Holly and Sean Jones who played under Romeo Crennel on the Browns to come in to bolster the defensive backfield.

With Jabar Gaffney gone to Denver, the Pats' third best receiver over the last couple of seasons has left the building. I would think that the braintrust is going to add here - maybe someone like Devery Henderson or Shaun McDonald. These are guys that have a lot of talent, can be deep threats, but aren't going to get a look if they're trying to get starter's scratch, because neither has shown they're anything more than a third receiver.

I'm not even going to venture a guess at the extra offensive linemen that they will try to bring in, but I'm certain they will given the fact they have every year since Belichick has been coach.

The other end of the rainbow...

At the other end of the spectrum is the Redskins who have fired off one of the dumbest contracts in the history of the NFL. Yup, I'm talking Albert Haynesworth.

Yes, the volatile Haynesworth has been one of the best nosetackles in the game, if not the best, over the last two seasons. In those two seasons he's rocked 91 tackles, 14.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Of course that was done on consecutive one year contracts (45 tackles per season, 7.25 sacks, and 1.5 forced fumbles).

When Haynesworth was on a longterm contract his first five seasons he averaged 36 tackles per season, 1.9 sacks, and had a total of 3 forced fumbles. This is not a guy that plays hard when he knows he's set from a financial perspective.

He's also played in 16 games only once in his career and has averaged just under 13 games per season and has averaged 12.3 games per season since his sophomore season.

Rapid fire

2009-03-01T09:14:00.005-05:00

Given the events of the last couple of days, I guess Tom Brady's healthy and and gearing up for the season.

Great piece in the New York Daily News about the new Eight Men Out, the faces of the current baseball scandal and those players likelihood of getting into the Hall of Fame. It's not saying these guys are the only ones to use, it just notes that they have become the face of the scandal.

Just my opinion, but if any of the guys mentioned in that article get in, they need to make Pete Rose eligible for Hall consideration.

Good showing in his first game in green by Stephon Marbury. Here's hoping that it's not too early, or that there's enough time left before the end of the season for Starbury to revert to form.

I'm guessing that Scott Pioli trades away the third pick in the draft in order to get a pick later in the first round and recoup the second rounder he sent to the Pats.

While I think the Pats will go after a linebacker at some point in the draft, or a 'tweener defensive end, I believe that Bill Belichick believes that the likes of Vince Redd or Shawn Crable is going to have a breakthrough season in 2009 (Gary Guyton is more an inside backer). Crable showed flashes in last year's preseason of being a guy who could improve the team's pass rush.

Early returns on Junichi Tazawa from Red Sox training camp have been universally good. While I expect him to start at Portland, I wouldn't be surprised if he were in Boston by the end of the season.

It's interesting that knee jerk reactions to the Yankee spending spree was that they were favorites to win the East. Once pundits had a chance to sit back and look at the teams, most started putting the Bommahs as the second or third best team in the division behind Boston, and sometimes behind the Rays.

I don't think Herm Edwards ever gets a head coaching gig again. Consider - in eight seasons as a head coach he has amassed a 54-74 regular season record (39-41 with the Jets and a brutal 15-33 with the Chiefs), has an abysmal 2-4 playoff record, and his teams have averaged third place finishes (in four team divisions). Wrap that around a coach that turns 55 in a league that's moving away from recycling older coaches in favor of young assistants, and you've got a guy that might get a coordinator gig if he wants to stay in coaching, but he's not leading anymore teams. Have fun with the analyst gig, Herm.

So long, and thanks for all the fish...

2009-02-28T14:03:00.006-05:00

I didn't initially intend to use a Douglas Adams reference as a double entendre in regards to the Pats record against the Dolphins during Mike Vrabel's tenure in a Pats uni, it just happened that way.

I will miss Vrabel, but I'm not going to bitch about the team moving him. At this point I trust that the team knows what it's doing from a personnel standpoint. I will say that, even though I agree with the coffin corner that this deal makes sense for the Patriots, I still think this is an absolute steal for the Chiefs. For the 34th pick in the draft the Chiefs got a quarterback that's got nothing but upside who just led the Patriots to a 11-5 record. I would like to have seen the Pats get a fourth rounder as well - even if it were in next year's draft.

Through the course of the season, Cassel actually put up better numbers than Brady did in Brady's first season as a starter back in 2001. There are those that will be quick to point out that Cassel did it throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

I'd like to point out that Brady did it behind a healthy offensive line and with healthy starters at the running back position - so that advantage is really a wash. And Brady did it with a healthier and better defense in place than Cassel had.

I'm not saying that Cassel is better than Brady, or will ever be better than Brady. All I'm saying is that at the same points in their careers, the two are very comparable - and what GM...what team's fans wouldn't want to take that?

They are getting set at signal-caller on the offensive side of the ball, which lets Scott Pioli build around a cornerstone. Now they can concentrate on building the offensive line through free-agency and the draft.

On the other side of the ball they get Mike Vrabel whom Bill Belichick has described as one of the smartest players he has ever coached.

I've noticed a lot of the stories about this point out that Vrabel is coming off an off year. None of those stories mention that the entire Patriots defensive front struggled. The vaunted defensive linemen seldom tied up the personnel that allowed Vrabel to run free in earlier seasons.

Even if Vrabel is at the tail end of his career, my bet is that he's still got two good years left, and this gives the Chiefs a much needed leader on what was a pitiful, leaderless defense.

More than anything else, these two players were brought in to change the culture and climate of the locker room. They were brought in to help teach the young players on this team how to win.

Will they this year? It's unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs make some noise in 2010.

For Chiefs fans that think this is a bad deal, or that Cassel is the second coming of Scott Mitchell, let's get something cleared up - unlike many of the back-ups that have come before that turned out to be busts, Cassel has a full season under his belt as a starter. Not three or four starts that got some personnel guys all hot and bothered, but a full season, and has been with your personnel guy since he came out of college four years ago. This isn't some guy that Pioli fell in love with over four games of tape - this is a guy that Pioli has seen on the practice field day in and day out for almost half a decade, and then watched pilot the Patriots to 11 wins (could have been 13 if the defensive line could get into the backfield last season). You're getting a player, and the only thing that could be a problem is the team's offensive line.

One last thought - I can't help but find a certain irony that Cassel will be starting for the team next season to which he owes a debt in regards to getting his chance to start.

Matt, Mike, good luck, so long, and thanks for all the fish. It was a fun run.

Stupid is as stupid does...

2009-02-27T08:59:00.003-05:00

The Manny news out of La-La Land...

The Dodgers announced Thursday night the star outfielder’s agent Scott Boras had declined a $25 million, one-year contract with a $20 million player option for 2010. It was the club’s fourth offer to Ramirez this offseason.
“We want Manny back, but we feel we are negotiating against ourselves,” Dodgers owner Frank McCourt said in a statement. “When his agent finds those ‘serious offers’ from other clubs, we’ll be happy to restart the negotiations.”

Nice to see some team management that's not willing to negotiate against themselves to get talent in their folds. As for Ramirez, it appears he and Scott Boras are negotiating his way out of baseball.

Someone needs to explain to Ramirez that market value isn't what his agent tells him it is, rather it's set by what someone is willing to pay. Evidently his market value is two years at $45 million less his agent's commission.

Congrats to Tom Brady on the nuptials.

After a rough stretch it looks like the Bruins are back on track.

Gotta admit, I thought the Celtics game against the then 14 win Clippers was a gimme. Evidently they did too.

It looks like Fred Taylor will be the newest member of the Patriots backfield. Taylor will be providing additional depth to a backfield that includes Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. My guess is that Heath Evans gets re-signed and that a back will be picked in the late rounds to round out the team's depth at the position in training camp.

Irony is funny and other thoughts...

2009-02-26T09:33:00.003-05:00

So the Dodgers look like they have finally found a solution to the soap opera that is the Manny Ramirez situation.

As every Sox fan knows, Ramirez pulled every trick in the book in order to engineer his exit from Boston because he believed he could make more money if he was out from under the Sox's onerous two option years at $20 million per. Reportedly Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras, told Man-Ram that he could potentially land a four-year $100+ million deal. It looks like he's going to get a one year $25 million deal with a player's option for a second year at $20 million.

That means, in essence, that Ramirez landed a raise of $2.5 million (once you take out Scott Boras' commission) only if Ramirez doesn't exercise his option year. If he does, then all he's done is engineer a $500,000.00 raise spread over two years, but he's managed to pay Boras $4.5 million for pretty much the same money he would have made anyway had he stayed with the Sox.

Gotta love the irony.

Over on the gridiron I've been wondering what the Pats brain-trust has planned for the off-season in regards to rebuilding. I know that what I might see as an issue, or as the most important needs are not necessarily what Bill Belichick sees as the team's greatest needs.

Biggest need -

For whatever reason, last season the pass rush was horrible. Brutal might be the best word. Had the pass rush actually existed, the Pats probably would have beaten the Jets in the overtime game, might have actually made a game of it against the Chargers, and probably would have won the game against the Colts. Part of the issue was Ty Warren playing the season with a pulled groin, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab another defensive linemen in the middle rounds in an effort to add depth to the ends. I think it's more likely that they will try to find the solution, however, with an outside linebacker in the early rounds.

Second biggest need -

Defensive back would appear to be the next biggest need on the Pats radar. I put this behind the pass rush because a solid pass rush can cover for all sorts of sins in the defensive back-field, and lord knows that the Pats didn't have a solid pass rush last season. Also, due to injury, the team was forced to play a lot of young players that really had to learn on the job, some of whom may turn into solid DB's. However, I still think this is an area that they will address through free-agency or the draft in an effort to find a starting caliber corner.

Other places -

Depth on the offensive line - last season protection was an issue for two reasons; one - Matt Cassel had to get up to game speed after playing little since high school and often, early in the season held on to the ball too long and took the sack rather than throwing the ball away. Unfortunately, this issue was compounded by the fact that half the starting offensive line was injured for half the year.

I figure the team will, like in every year since Jabar Gaffney got there, look for a third receiver to slot in behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

The team will also draft or sign a free agent quarterback to compete with Matt Guttierez for the third string QB slot once the team trades Matt Cassel.

Other Patriot thoughts -

No, the team will not bring in Marvin Harrison.

I think Laurence Maroney is running on borrowed time.

I'd like to see the team bring Heath Evans back.

I'm curious to see if Larry Izzo is hit with a suspension for his admission to using performance enhancers provided by Greg Anderson.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rosevelt Colvin back in camp with the Patriots. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't either - but I can see him being given the opportunity to make the team as a bench player.

Picking up the pieces of the last couple of days...

2009-02-25T07:59:00.003-05:00

Marvin Harrison is no longer a Colt. Given the fact that he was getting paid $7.6 million last season and has a cap number in excess of $13 million for next season and has averaged fewer than 50 yards per game for the last two seasons, missed time due to injury, and failed to put up 1000 yards combined in the last two seasons, this is hardly a surprise. What is a surprise is that the receiver who will turn 37 before the season begins didn't think renegotiating with the Colts was his best option. Personally, I think he loses money - and a lot of it - by not renegotiating with the Colts.

Honestly, any team that pays big money for him given the fact that he looked out of gas last season, deserves all the derision that comes their way.

I can't be the only one that thinks that the Celtics possibly bringing on Stephon Marbury is foolish. The man has been a malcontent everywhere he's played, and comes off as Allen Iverson-ish in regards to taking coaching...that is, he doesn't.

While I'm on the Celtics - They've gotten off to a good start without their big guy. I previously noted that if the Celtics were able to go 4-4 during the roughly eight game stretch without Kevin Garnett that the C's would be in good shape. Starting off the run 2-0...not a bad way to get there, particularly after absolutely destroying a Nugget team in Denver after losing to them by nine on the Parquet earlier in the season.

So without KG the C's are already 2-0 with only two tough contests left in the strech - the Cavs and the Magic at the tail end of the eight game stretch, the idea that they could go 6-2 and hold onto the top seed during Garnett's absence is not unrealistic.

I like the Pats signing Tully Banta-Cain. He was a solid, if unspectacular back-up. He ads depth to a position that needed additional depth last season.

I still don't think Matt Cassel will be on the Patriots roster come training camp, but I also don't believe that the trade to get Cassel is going to happen before draft day. I do think that he will garner a first round pick and something in the mid to late rounds, but the first rounder will be in next year's draft, and will likely result in a pick in the bottom half of the first round as I firmly believe that wherever Cassel goes, the team likely to land him will finish in the top half of the league, but just out of the playoffs.

So now only Jerry Jones is allowed to talk to the press. The dysfunction in Dallas is almost palpable. I can't help but feel as though this is a team that isn't going to win a playoff game while Jones is playing fantasy football with real life players.

Tidbits

2009-02-21T09:06:00.003-05:00

Evidently pharmacists in the Dominican are disputing A-Rod's claim that the steroid he used can be obtained over the counter in the DR. Additionally, according to a New York Daily News report, two reporters sent to the DR pretty much were able to obtain Durabolin immediately after getting off their flight.

The reporters went into the first pharmacy, were asked for a first name, and then spent about $20 to get their steroids.

Considering reports regarding a steroid trail from Mexico into San Diego (in relation to the Chargers), I'm surprised, given MLB's efforts over the last two seasons, that baseball's franchises continue to send players for winter league games to Mexico, or any of the Latino countries where obtaining these drugs is so easy.

Hopefully David Ortiz is being completely straight regarding banned trainer Angel Presinal. As much as I agree with Dave over at the Coffin Corner that Ortiz's call for a year ban on users makes it appear that he's likely to be clean, I disagree that his stats have stayed on an even keel throughout his career.

Everyone is quick to point out that he became a monster once in Boston and he was a full time player, but he did have two seasons with the Twins in which he played in at least 125 games and logged at least 400 at bats. For those two seasons Ortiz averaged 15 home runs and 69 RBI's. Over a 162 game season that projects to roughly 20 homers and 85 RBI's.

While the wrist injury he had last season was reminiscent of the one that Nomar had - one of the connective tissue, and an odd one at that - I don't believe that Big Papi has been juicing, but anecdotal evidence isn't good. He's linked with a trainer who's a known supplier (and should know better than to train where this man works - it's not like he doesn't have the money to have the option of training elsewhere), he had a freak injury of the connective tissue - the tendon sheath in his wrist - which is the sort of injury that could be indicative of steroid use, and his production spiked when he moved to Boston with his homerun total spiking by 55 percent when he moved from the Twins to the Sox, and more than doubling his final Minnesota HR total within two seasons, and knocking in 64 more runs within two years of his departure from the Metrodome.

The flip side - Ortiz was 26 in his final season with the Twins, just beginning to enter what is universally held as the prime of his career, the time when most players stats would spike. If you account for a 25 percent increase just based on entering the prime of his career, he would have hit about 25 homers and knock in about 93 runs. A look at Ortiz's stats also shows that he did have, on average a 35 to 40 percent increase in at bats - that would account for up to an additional 8 homers and 17 RBI's bringing him into the 30's and about 110 respectively, and I haven't even figured in the Fenway factor. So, no, I do think he got there naturally - but he really should be aware of appearances of impropriety in relation to the juicing issue.

Given that Kevin Garnett's injury is only a muscle strain and he should be back with about 18 games left in the season, i don't think Garnett's injury is necessarily a bad thing for the Celtics. If the team wins half the games he misses, that means he comes back and the C's have lost four games. At worst that will drop them to the three seed in the East. I don't think going .500 over the next eight games is an unrealistic expectation, and I don't think being the three seed is a bad thing for them.

Based on current standings, even if they lost the four games, they could only fall to the third seed if Orlando goes 7-1 over that same stretch - so it's more likely that the worst that would happen is that they end up in the second seed by no more than two games with 18 to go and a rested Kevin Garnett in the line-up.

That's not necessarily a bad thing.

My heart goes out...

2009-02-20T17:16:00.003-05:00

This story will make sports fans optimistic about the future, and bring a tear to the eye of anyone who has even half a heart beating in his or her chest.

We, the sports-obsessed nut-jobs of the blogosphere spend a lot of our time talking about the subjects of the day - steroids, HGH, rules violations in search of that elusive edge - the list goes on, and it gets less and less positive with each passing month. Hall of Fame arguments used to be based solely on statistics. Now the question of "if they didn't juice, would they have gotten in? Should we put them in anyway?" haunts every HoF vote. People talk about tainted championships, and history books are rewritten by iconoclasts, tearing down players such as Babe Ruth, once held in such high regard that he was almost thought of like a deity in the sport. Now he was a fat, drunk, womanizing baseball savant.

Sports heroes are torn down with a regularity of an iconoclast on an all-bran diet.

Every now and then a story hits the national wire that gives me hope - not for national sports, but most definitely for athletes at other levels of sport. I touched on this about a year ago when I wrote the following -

If you want to look up to athletes, to put someone on a pedestal and use him or her as an example for your kids - look to something, someone a little more obscure.

Look to the Ironman Triathlon Championships. Not to the top finishers.

Look to sister Madonna Buder, an amateur athlete who finished the event for thirteen consecutive years (missing last year's cut off by mere minutes at the end of the cycling stage), breaking her own record each of those years as being the oldest woman to complete the event. Or take John Blais, a man with ALS who completed the Ironman in 2005 in order to raise awareness for the disease. He was in a wheelchair by the 2006 event and didn't live to see the 2007 Ironman. Then there was a competitor in this year's event by the name of Scott Rigsby, a double-amputee who lost both of his legs below the knees. How about Charles Plaskon, a blind 64-year old finisher? Or the story of Dick Hoyt, which you really have to see to believe? Really. I can't do him justice.

There are plenty of athletes out there deserving of that pedestal, for any number of reasons. Just try not to forget that the pros are human too, and generally willing to do whatever it takes to stay at the top of their game. The people I mention above are human as well, with human failings like the rest of us. However, unlike the Clemenses of the world, they're not doing what they do for money...or even personal glory. They see the mountain in front of them and see something to accomplish.

Then there are the teenage athletes that get sportsmanship, that understand it so much better than so many of the adult professionals. There were the high school girls in Washington last year that each gave their medals to the girl who finished a place ahead of when the first place runner was erroneously disqualified.

And now there are the high school basketball teams in Illinois and Wisconsin that did the right thing simply because they knew it was the right thing to do. It wasn't about winning. It wasn't about the letter of the law. It was about doing the right thing by a player on a rival team - the fact that the player was a rival was immaterial. The fact that he was grieving, that he needed to play - that's what was important.

Go to the linked story. In a time when we here Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras whining about his contract, or lack thereof; when we're getting disingenuous apologies from steroid users and half excuses that just open the users up to more questions (A-Rod, I'm looking at you); when some of the biggest names in sports are involved in criminal proceedings (Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, the ongoing saga for Michael Vick); when professional sports are filled with me-me-me players (Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson) that are so self-centered that their teams suffer; when any number of other offenses are committed in the professional athletic community, the story of Johntel Franklin of DeKalb should be required reading.

If you have not read his story, do so now. Don't wait. Please.

Steroids - it's a three ring circus

2009-02-18T08:13:00.002-05:00

Never mind the idiot fans that are actually coming to Alex Rodriguez's defense in the Winstrol-Stanozolol Circus - and there are some (all you need do is look at the comments at the end of the article here) - we are now seeing three distinct groups forming in Baseball's biggest side-show.

The Steroid Users and their Apologists - taking center ring, step right up to see records broken and excuses made. Watch false apologies (so so sorry [I got caught]. Won't do it again), crocodile tears, and the support and justification of teammates cornered into shows of such. Witness team brain trusts cringe as they realize they're awarded monstrous contracts under false pretenses, and scramble in conjunction with agents in spin control.

The second ring - Players filled with righteous and, sometimes, justified indignation when going about the game without taking short-cuts. Players not hiding behind the union; players calling for stricter testing and penalties, players that aren't making excuses, calling it "the culture," or justifying use. Yes, there are some players in this group that seem to move to the center ring, but that's all part of the show now, isn't it?

The Fourth Estate is the Third Ring - The reporters reporting the news have become the news. Selena Roberts, the reporter from Sports Illustrated who broke the news has become part of the current news cycle for both breaking the story, and because of Alex Rodriguez's attack on her during his interview with Peter Gammons. During the Gammons interview in which A-Rod copped to his steroid use, the superstar with the quarter-billion dollar talent and the ten-cent head accused Roberts of stalking him and of having multiple run-ins with the police.

Unfortunately for A-Rod, there's not a shred of evidence to support his claims. So much so, that Rodriguez has already privately contacted Roberts and apologized.

My own personal opinion of A-Rod's apology - were I the reporter, it wouldn't be enough. I would want a public retraction and apology. Until that happened, I would have lawyers begin proceedings against Rodriguez, and wouldn't back off until that public apology happened.

By Request

2009-02-11T11:52:00.003-05:00

Colts fan (don't hold it against her, guys) and fellow leatherhead Teresa put forth the following response to my reaction to the Alex Rodriguez steroids story -

What is so sad is these people don't need those drugs to be rock stars. They are amazing on their own. Is the pressure to do more and more? It is peer pressure?

I don't think there's any one answer as to why these different athletes feel it's necessary to juice. There might be one right answer for a given player, but there are a variety of reasons that these men inject, rub, and otherwise administer illegal and banned substances.

For some, I think it's about hanging around for a few more years - Rodney Harrison comes to mind. For others, bottom of the roster players, it's about hanging around, period.

For every player like Harrison or the bottom end player trying to extend their time in the pros, there are the guys like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez for whom being at the top of the game wasn't good enough. There's a special sort of narcissism that goes into that - one that I understand, but I just don't get. Okay, well, Clemens didn't sustain it over a long period of time like Bonds had done, not until he had been juicing.

Being at the top of their games wasn't good enough. They had to shatter records, and they will find ways, just like their apologists, to rationalize the use of the banned supplements - it doesn't affect the ability to pick up the ball in the strike zone (in spite of the fact that studies suggest that HGH can enhance eye-sight), it doesn't affect the inherent ability to turn on a 95 mile per hour fast ball (in spite of the fact that evidence has shown that steroids can impact and help build the fast twitch muscle that allows a hitter to turn on that ball), it doesn't help (then why do it, and why do these players almost always show a spike in their numbers in the years they admit to having started doping?).

When I was in high school, I knew of at least one player on the football team doing steroids. I didn't get it. For me, part of sport was pushing my body to the limit, see what I was truly capable of. I qualified for the New York State Meet in track and field, I've finished a marathon, I've played Australian football for ten seasons, played street hockey for eight. I've never missed a game due to injury (although I probably should have - I've been known to play games with an air-cast on my ankle for disconnected tendons...it sucked), and never taken any sort of supplement to do so. It defeats the purpose, in my opinion.

In their heads, it appears to be a means to an end. Better stats, better contracts, better remembered when they're gone. It's not a short-cut, legality be damned.

But why is there a mentality that juicing isn't a short-cut? Because a person who takes steroids and doesn't put the physical labor into getting into better shape just gets fat. Best as I can figure is they believe that because they are still doing physical work that it's not a short cut.

My personal belief is that these guys, while they know it's against the rules, don't believe they're actually doing anything wrong. And I think that's really the bottom line.

Other thoughts -

Brett Favre claims that he's actually retired...again. I'll believe it sometime next fall if and when he's not under center taking snaps.

There has been a lot shaken-up in the NFL this off-season, and I will address that soon.

Da Juice...again

2009-02-10T06:38:00.003-05:00

To be perfectly honest, I, for one, am getting tired of writing about the crap-tastic world of juicing athletes, but given the news cycle regarding Alex Rodriguez, it looks like I kind of have to.

Am I surprised by the recent revelations? Not in the least. Is there anyone whose name would surprise me at this point? No.

Sure, there are players that I hope haven't been on anything, but I'm convinced at this point that well over half the players from the so-called steroid era were juicing in one way or another. Considering that the only source for the Mitchell Report was a clubhouse attendant from New york, and the preponderance of names contained in the report were East Coast guys, I have to wonder just how many names would have been in the report had they found the supplier in Atlanta? San Diego? Arlington? Chicago?

There is no schadenfreude in this. A-Rod is just the explanation point on what isn't really even the end of an era. There's a misconception that juicers are going to go away. A-Rod has any number of issues which are fair game, but for anyone who has defended Rodney Harrison, or Nick Kaczur, or any number of other NFL players, to attack Rodriguez on this is not just disingenuous, it's hypocritical.

The NFL makes the idea that the juicing era in baseball a lie. And let's call it what it is - the Juicing Era, not steroid.

The designer drug makers will always be a step ahead of those enforcing the league's rules. The sins are out of Pandora's Box, and there's not putting them back in.

Maybe there will be fewer juicing, but the era isn't over. It's just beginning, the tip of the iceberg, and more is bound to come out.

Of trucks and tags

2009-02-06T08:17:00.005-05:00

In honor of Truck Day at Fenway Park, I would like to present my readers with today's Non Sequitur -

Click on it to enlarge.

So the Sox signed Brad Wilkerson to a minor league deal the same week that Mark Kotsay has back surgery. Coincidence? I think not, given that Wilkerson lists as, like Kotsay, as a OF/1B. If Kotsay is healthy and swinging the bat well by the end of Spring Training, I don't think Wilkerson makes the team, and is likely given his outright release. If Kotsay has trouble getting healthy, the 31-year old Wilkerson is the team's insurance policy fourth outfielder.

Overall, there is a drop off, career-wise, from Kotsy, a career .281 hitter, to Wilkerson who hit .247 for his career. As far as being an insurance policy, Wilkerson isn't terrible, but he's not thrilling either. The more at bats he gets, the better he's been - batting .259 in seasons during which he had a minimum of .500 at bats, but has batted .223 in seasons with fewer than 500 at bats. Also interesting to note is that Wilkerson suffered a severe drop-off when he moved from the National to the American League.

Of course, it can be argued that Wilkerson was already declining when he left the Nationals - batting .268, .255, and .248 in his last three seasons with Montreal/Washington before moving on to Texas.

The flip side - Last season Wilkerson batted .220. In his time with the Sox last season Kotsay batted .226.

Cassel building -

So the Pats franchised Matt Cassel - there were a lot of reasons to do this as well as a lot of reasons not to. Among the reasons not to - the Patriots now have $29.3 million tied up in two players at the same position. While the cap for 2009 is expected to be $123 million, a significant leap from 2008, it also needs to be noted that Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas and Richard Seymour combine for a cap hit of $26.7 million. That means that the team will have $56 million of money, or 45.5 percent of their entire cap tied up in five players. That's been contrary to the Patriots team philosophy since Bill Belichick has taken over.

According to Miguel's unofficial Pats Cap page (I've found it to be pretty reliable), trading Tom Brady, as some have suggested, would save the Patriots only $4.3 million against the cap, meaning that Brady getting traded still leaves the Pats with a $24.95 million hit at the QB position alone - meaning that Cassel, whose entire $16.5 million comes off the books if traded, is the likely player to be traded, in spite of Brady's age and recovery from injury.

All said, I still think that, unless Brady is struggling in his rehab, that Cassel opens the season as the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs while Brady is under center for the Flying Elvii.

Reaching new Summits -

Congrats to Pat Summit on win 1000 (1000-186 overall). Summit nailed her 1000th win in her 35th season. The next winningest basketball coach in the history of the NCAA is Bobby Knight with 902 spread over the course of 42 seasons. Seven more seasons and almost 100 fewer wins for second place - that's domination.

Better than expected

2009-02-02T09:31:00.002-05:00

That was not the game I was expecting.

It was much better.

A couple of reactions -

The James Harrison interception was the difference in the game. I'm not convinced he got into the end zone on his run back. Actually, I'm pretty sure that his head and his lead forearm were down before the ball crossed the line, but I have to admit that there wasn't enough on replay to overturn the play.

I'm not sure it would have mattered, though, because one of the Cardinals, after the change of possession, committed a facemask penalty and the half can't end on a defensive penalty. As such, the Steelers would have had a final play on offense just before the half from the half-yard line to punch ball in.

The Cardinals played a fairly undisciplined game, committing eleven penalties for 106 yards, and still nearly pulled out the win.

I didn't expect the Cards to run the ball well, but I was a little surprised that the Steelers rushed for only 58 yards (2.2 yards per carry). While the Cards didn't run it often - and only for 33 yards, they averaged 2.8 yards per carry.

I thought there were times that the Pittsburgh defense came across as desperate bullies - once on a punch thrown by a defensive back while out of bounds, and the other time when James Harrison blatantly committed an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a punt.

I believe that had the Cardinals won Larry Fitzgerald would have been named the MVP - or at the very least that he should have.

Ben Roethlisberger looked fairly pedestrian for most of the game.

The Cardinals defense was better than advertised this post season - much better - but they came up one series short.

As much as I'd like to see them build off of this season, I can't help but think that the Cardinals are going to suffer the post-Super Bowl hangover. As good a season as Kurt Warner had, I think Lisa over at A Red Sox State of Maine has hit on something with Warner - he has not handled losing well. His 16 starts following the 2001 Super Bowl loss - 5-11. From 2001 until this 9-7 season he is 13 - 29 as a starter.

Over and above that, for you pundits that think he's a Hall of Famer (which I have heard too much recently), this is a man that has started 16 games only three times in his 11 year NFL career. To use one of Don Banks arguments against Drew Bledsoe, which was that no Hall of Fame QB has ever lost his starting job three times - Warner has lost his job five times total to the likes of Marc Bulger, Eli Manning, Josh McCown, and Matt Leinart (twice).

I'll write more about this issue later, and cover other off-season goodies in both baseball and football soon.

Super Sunday

2009-01-30T11:29:00.002-05:00

I'm already on record as saying that I don't think this if going to be a good game.

I can't help but feeling that we may be looking at a blow-out with the Steelers stomping all over the Cardinals.

Overall, the Cardinals haven't been good away from home. With the exception of the playoffs, they haven't played well against quality teams and they gave up an average of 27.25 points per game against AFC opponents. This game has the makings of being ugly.

I hope I'm wrong.

I hope this game comes down to the last couple of possessions.

Arizona has a lot going for them, but I can't convince myself that it's enough - they have the better quarterback. They have the underdog card. They have coaches that know the Steelers offensive personnel inside and out. They have three wide receivers that racked up over 1000 yards each this season going against a secondary that has had issues against good passing teams.

But they don't have the defense that Pittsburgh has. Nor the running game. And those things are integral to success in January.

I could be wrong. I hope that I am.

But this just doesn't have the feel of a good match-up.

The latest rumor is that the Pats now won't franchise Matt Cassel. While franchising and trading Cassel makes a certain amount of sense - I'm not sure it makes as much sense as letting him become a free-agent. In theory it is better to get something for Cassel rather than letting him walk, but what is Cassel really worth on the free-agent market?

Would the Pats only tender Cassel if there was an understanding that he wouldn't sign the tender?

I have my doubts that any team would sign a deal with Cassel for $14.6 million, making
a trade difficult, unless the Pats only retained Cassel's rights. My guess, if Cassel hits free-agency, he's looking at between $9 million and $11 million per year.

All of this of course begs the question of where Tom Brady is in his rehab. Rumors are that Brady is running, and doing drop back drills, putting his rehab on pace to be ready to start the season. If the Pats are satisfied that Brady is going to be Brady come September, I think they let Cassel walk.

I have a hunch that if the Pats do franchise Cassel, it means that Brady isn't where the Patriots think he needs to be.

Experiencing Tek-nical difficulties

2009-01-29T20:17:00.002-05:00

According to the Boston Globe Jason Varitek is now considering sitting out the season or retiring rather than accept the 50 percent pay cut being offered by the Red Sox.

Let's face a basic truth - at age 37, if Tek takes a year off, considering the only offer he has on the table now is from the Red Sox, he might as well be retiring.

This man is looking for a multi-year deal at $10 million per year.

This same man was 26th in batting average among catchers that appeared in at least 90 games. Only five catchers in the majors that appeared in at least 90 games had a worse batting average.

My only assumption is that agent Scott Boras believes that the reason that Varitek is not getting offers from the other teams is that the teams don't want to give up a draft pick as compensation. I have a hunch that is indeed part of it - but I also think that no team wants to pay top of the market rates for bottom of the market offensive production.

Tek is an interesting case.

There is no catcher behind the plate right now that has caught as many no hitters as Varitek. Hideo Nomo, Derek Lowe, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester. Hell, he got Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez into the ninth.

But let's face it - there's a reason that Jim Rice was at one point the highest paid player in baseball, and not Dwight Evans.

Is Tek's ability to call a game worth $10 million? Frankly, no. If it were, then a team would also have been willing to part with a draft pick considering draft picks are far from a sure thing - and teams would at least know what they're getting with Varitek.

I like Varitek, but I just don't think there's enough in his tank to merit giving him starter money - and if he thinks there is, then he's just not facing reality.

A little more dirt on the grave

2009-01-29T09:07:00.002-05:00

Well, I guess this means that Barry Bonds didn't come through his drug tests clean like he claimed.

I can't say I'm terribly surprised. The Feds don't go after someone unless they're sure they can nail the person - they have a 95 percent conviction rate. In other words Bonds and Roger Clemens have about a 1 in 20 chance of getting out of their respective situations.

Yup, the longer this goes the more it looks like Bonds is screwed.

I would like to take a moment to bid adieu to John Updike who passed away this week. I was never a big Updike fan, but he still has the best description of Fenway, calling it in an essay about Ted Williams' retirement a "lyric little bandbox of a ballpark" and "a compromise between Man's Euclidean determinations and Nature's beguiling irregularities."

A Sox lifer, it's nice to know that he lived to see the Sox break through all the years of fan heartache to win the Series in 2004 and again in 2007.

Rest in peace in that great big bookstore in the sky big guy.

On a final note - all I'm hoping for this weekend is a good game. I can't help but think we're looking at a potential blowout. I really hope I'm wrong about this.

Sentimentallity be damned

2009-01-27T10:20:00.002-05:00

I've been bad about blogging this month. Mostly because I've taken on two projects - one, I'm organizing a blues festival (hopefully it works out - I should know in a week or two if it's on the scrap heap), and two, I'm working on a comic book adaptation of the Tain Bo Cuailnge (The Cattle Raid of Cooley - those of you familiar with Celtic Mythology know what I'm referring to).

As such, I'm a little bit behind.

Let me get to the Jason Varitek situation.

Let's begin with the following - I understand the decision to not accept arbitration. However, Scott Boras was off his rocker looking for Jorge Posada money. I mean, completely and totally mental.

I understand that Varitek calls a good game and works well with young pitchers, but he's a gaping hole in the lineup. Over the last three seasons the Red Sox captain has averaged .238 at the plate, struck out 331 times, and grounded into 32 double plays.

Players are paid for their offensive production, and as much as it pains me to say it, Varitek is no Posada.

Over the same three year span, Posada has batted .303, struck out 233 times, and grounded into 25 double plays. Hell, only twice in his career has Posada batted below .262. Varitek hasn't hit higher than that since 2006 when he had the third highest average of his career at .281.

On the defensive side - Varitek gunned down 30 percent of would-be base stealers over the last three seasons while Posada puched out 38.5 percent of them.

Varitek can take offense all he wants at the Red Sox $5 million one year offer (with an option) if he so chooses, but it's more than generous for a 37 year old catcher who should have to fight for a starting spot going into camp.

There are a lot of people that might disagree with my assessment, or that I'm comparing the Captain so unfavorably to a Yankee, but I'm not given to sentimentality in regards to winning - neither should Red Sox management or coaches.

I have enjoyed Varitek thoroughly for the decade-plus that he has been the team's backstop. I would love to see him come into camp and tear the cover off the ball and prove everyone wrong - but his recent production just doesn't merit top pay, and if he truly believes that it does, then it's time to cut ties.

Fans are a different beast. Fans can afford sentimentality when management can't. Unfortunately, because the fans can afford and do let emotion cloud their views of a player's value - particularly at the end, fans often get unjustifiably upset with a team for the team's treatment of a favorite player.

Truth be told, I would have loved to have seen Troy Brown come back for a last hurrah in Patriots blue, or even Drew Bledsoe, but I understand that Brown probably wouldn't have been able to get anywhere near the top of the depth chart and would have languished on the bench. Bledsoe - well, he just wasn't a Belichick guy, so I get that neither was about to happen.

Offensively, Varitek is just not starting material anymore. Five million big ones is still starter money. Realistically, the way he's hit the last couple of seasons, we should be looking at someone who should have been offered in the $2 million to $3 million range. The Sox have been more than fair in offering $5 million. If Varitek doesn't take it, my guess is that he'll be unemployed until at least April.

Observations after a politically busy week

2009-01-21T11:48:00.004-05:00

No one has mentioned this, even though it was often mentioned as a possibility when Roger Clemens was at the forefront of the news for a slew of stupid decisions, but W has left office with a bare minimum of presidential pardons. The Rocketman's name wasn't on that list. And the Grand Jury investigation continues.

Can't help but think that, in the end, Rusty Hardin figured on a pardon from Bush, a long-time friend of the family. Also can't help but think that Clemens is pretty well screwed now. I wonder what the strategic move is now?

I think one of the more compelling story-lines through to the Super Bowl is going to be that part of Bill Cowher's brain-trust - Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm scheming against players that they coached for years.

I still like the way the Red Sox are going about business this off-season. I have to say that the Yankees just seem like they're doing more of the same - blowing big dollars on guys that had great contract seasons, but, for the most part, have questionable histories in regards to being real impact players.

Dave over at the Coffin Corner has an interesting post about Mayor Daley in Chicago lobbying the NFL for a second franchise in the Windy City. My theory is, in spite of all the Bear-love that the citizens have for the hometown team, that Daley senses a dissatisfied undercurrent running through the voting populace there in how the Bear ownership runs their team - there is a definite sense that they run the Bears as though they were in a small market.

I can understand the fan-base's frustration, if this is indeed the case, given the fact that Chicago is the second largest television market in the NFL, and third overall. The only top ten television market in the United States without an NFL team is Los Angeles - and, as much as the NFL wants a presence in that market, teams have just not worked out there.

Ironically, even though the Bears play in the second largest media market in the NFL, they're ninth in team valuations according to Forbes. The top three, in order, are Cowboys, Redskins, and Patriots - the sixth, seventh, and eight largest markets respectively in the NFL. The sixth and seventh most valuable teams on the list - the Texans, and the Colts - the 10th and 22nd largest media markets in the NFL respectively.

While Bears management hasn't been as brutally bad as say San Francisco, the league's third largest market, now hosting two of the league's three least valuable teams, one has to question what Jerry Jones, Bob Kraft, and Daniel Snyder know that the McCaskey family doesn't. Even the value of the Jets breaks the top five in the NFL.

Obviously, there are revenue streams that exist that the McCaskey's have never figured out how to tap, and they use that as an excuse.

Catching up

2009-01-20T15:10:00.003-05:00

It's about time I got back to this.

It's been a very, very busy week. So...onto the playoffs.

Well, I was right on one out of the two. Arizona made it, Baltimore did not. I only saw the second half of the Arizona game because I was in a two-hour organizational meeting regarding a blues festival that I'm organizing. Philly made a game of it, but I was right - if it became an offense-oriented game, it favored the Cardinals.

Some thoughts on the Pittsburgh game. The Ravens chances died on the Willis McGahee fumble when safety Ryan Clark lowered the boom on McGahee. I'm up in the air on the legality of the hit, given the rules that have been on the books for some time -

NFL Rule Change 1996
" using any part of a players helmet (including the top/crown and forehead/hairline parts) or facemask to butt, spear, or ram an opponent violently or unnecessarily; although such violent or unnecessary use of the helmet is impermissible against any opponent, game officials will give special attention in administering this rule to protect those players who are in virtually defenseless postures."

NFL Memo Clarification to referees 2007
"Officials will be reminded this week to pay strict attention to these rules and disqualify the fouling player if the action is judged to be flagrant," Pereira wrote in the memo sent to the 32 NFL teams. "Actions that involve flagrant helmet to helmet contact are the likely acts that will include disqualification. Our commissioner and this office remain very focused on the safety of our players."

While McGahee certainly wasn't defenseless, my concern comes from the 2007 clarification that utilizes the term "flagrant." Admittedly, that hit in and of itself is not flagrant, I have to look at Clark's body of work throughout the season and wonder.

I have watched four Pittsburgh games in their entirety throughout the course of the season, and parts of a fifth. In each and every one Clark has had a hit like this - whether it was the shot on McGahee, or Wes Welker, or any of the other players I've seen him hit, he has gone helmet-to-helmet. I haven't seen that from any of his teammates. Not Troy Polamalu, not the linebackers. None of the other big hitters has gone helmet-to-helmet in every single game.

Just Clark.

It makes me wonder about his intention when he's tackling.

That said, we're now looking at a Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl.

There's going to be a ton of hype between now and Super Bowl Sunday, and usually I like to digest some of that, listen to what the pundits say, and then ignore them accordingly. In this case, I'm going to say it up front. In two weeks time, the Steelers will officially become the second most dominant team of the first decade of the new millennium, becoming only the second team in the last ten years to win multiple Super Bowls.

A separate piece of entertainment -

A week ago this past Saturday I covered a ghost hunt at a local brewery. The local ghost hunters spent over an hour and a half prepping myself and roughly two dozen brewery employees and their family members. To say that the ghost hunters were, um, interesting, is an understatement.

I will write more about it after the article hits the stands at the beginning of next month, but I will say that it stretched my ability as a journalist to approach something with an open mind. To be more precise, I had to work very hard during the orientation part of the evening to maintain a straight face.

Thoughts on this Sunday

2009-01-14T09:58:00.004-05:00

The NFC Championship game might be the biggest surprise to me from the entire season. Yes - before the season began, I predicted that the Eagles would outlast any of their NFC East rivals, but I figure that to be a regular season thing, not post. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised by just about anything - I could just as easily see a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl as a Steelers-Eagles bowl. That said, if I had to make a prediction - and I don't think, given the last couple of weeks, anything can be said decisively - this is my breakdown on what to expect this weekend...

The Eagles are playing great defense right now, but the Cardinals have more weapons on offense than the Giants, and the Cardinals are playing as well on offense as the Eagles are on defense. Additionally, like the Colts during their championship run a couple of years ago, the Cardinals are actually playing sterling defense right now.

Of all the teams left, the Cardinals might be playing the best across the board. I don't know that this will translate into a Lombardi being raised in the desert, but, at this point, it wouldn't surprise me....but I'm getting ahead of myself.

If I had to call it, I would say that the Cardinals are going to walk out of this one as the winner. Donovan McNabb had an okay game last weekend, but not great, completing only 55 percent of his passes with one touchdown and one turnover. If the Cardinals make McNabb have to beat them in the same way the Giants did (taking away Brian Westbrook), then I have a hard time believing that the Eagles will keep up.

I think that Arizona has too many weapons on offense, and if the Cardinals line keeps Kurt Warner upright (the Patriots showed back in the 2001 Super Bowl that the best way to rattle Warner is to pressure the receivers and knock them off their routes, not to blitz Warner - and the Eagles D lives by the blitz), I don't think the Eagles have the cover guys to match up with the Arizona receivers.

My guess is that the Cards walk out with a ten point win, but, as I said, after the two rounds we have already witnessed, nothing will surprise me.

Over in the AFC, I see, in essence, two large cavemen smacking the crap out of each other with their clubs.

This is in no way, shape, or form, an offensive struggle of any kind. We're looking at the Monster Mash with the two best defenses hammering on grind-it-out style offenses. It will be the sort of game where it won't even come down to the last team with the ball. It will be whatever team's defense comes up with the game-changing play.

I could easily see this as a one point game, decided on field goals, safeties, or an interception return for a touchdown.

If I went based on who I think is more banged up, I would guess that the Steelers were going to win. If I were going on odds, I would go with the Ravens, based on the idea that it is really difficult to beat the same team three times in the same season even when the loser of the first two contests is mediocre - and the Ravens aren't mediocre. They're really good.

If one of these two teams definitively had a quarterback as good as either Donovan McNabb, or Kurt Warner, I would feel that there was a definite advantage for one of the two teams, as such, I just tossed a coin and am going with the Ravens.

There you have it - if my wishy-washy predictions are accurate, we might well have the fowl-est Super Bowl ever. Sorry for the pun, and enjoy the playoffs this weekend. If I think of something between now and Friday, I will be sure to post it, along with a story about this past Saturday night and its relation to my latest column for the Brewing News.

Quick hits during a busy week...

2009-01-13T11:33:00.004-05:00

It's about time that Jim Rice got into the Hall of Fame.

There have been many who were detractors, trying to compare him unfavorably to other players or Hall of Famers - seldom comparing him to the peers with whom he played. From 1975 through 1986 - a twelve season stretch - Rice led the AL in total games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging average, total bases, extra base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.^[3] Among all major league players during that time, Rice was the leader in five of these categories. In five categories he was better than anyone in the game - better than Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Carlton Fisk, Tony Perez, and any other Hall of Famer from that era.

Detractors like to point to his defense, and talk about the advantage he had playing in Fenway's short left, forgetting that the Green Monster wreaks havoc with visiting outfielders. The Monster both giveth and taketh away - defensively it's more difficult than people remember when it comes time to vote for the Hall. They also forget that Reggie Jackson was brutal in the outfield. Additionally, Rice was a six-time top five candidate for the MVP during that 12 season stretch, including a win in 1978. Jackson was a top five candidate five times over a 12 season stretch and hit 100 RBI's or more only six times over a 21 season career. Rice - eight times.

Yes, Jackson was a monster in the post season, but Rice was better than most people give him credit for - in 1986 he also scored 14 runs and drove in six. The 14 runs Rice scored is the fifth most recorded by an individual during a single year's postseason play.

Jackson was inducted in his second year of eligibility. It took Rice 15.

It's a shame they took this long to get it right.

For the Birds...

So - if anyone had told me, pretty much at any time in the last couple of weeks, that the NFC Championship game would come down to Arizona holding court against Philly, I would have laughed hard enough to give myself a hernia. Philly I figured could make it that far, even though I believed it to be unlikely, but the Cardinals? Anyone else notice any signs of an impending Apocalypse?

Elsewhere around the NFL...

I was a little surprised by Josh McDaniels choice to go to Denver. Lately it's a situation where it seems like the inmates are running the asylum. I figured that there was every possibility he would end up wherever Scott Pioli did.

Rumors are that Terrell Owens might be on the chopping block in Dallas. Wonder where he ends up if that happens. Oakland, maybe?

Good luck in your next line of work Tony Dungy. I gotta admit, I thought he'd be back for one more season. It should be interesting to see what happens in Indy next season.

The week's happenings...

2009-01-08T08:34:00.003-05:00

Eric Mangini is now the coach of the Browns.

Peter King pointed out something interesting here, and it appears Randy Lerner hasn't learned from past mistakes. The last time the Browns had coaching and front office changes, Lerner hired the coach he wanted, and then hired his personnel guy. The coach was from the Patriots' system (Romeo Crennel), and the general manager was plucked out of the Ravens' offices (Phil Savage). By all accounts the two didn't work well together, and, of course, Savage was forced to work with a coach who was not his pick.

Fast forward to today. Mangini, like Crennel, a product of the Belichick system, was hired by Lerner. There is no GM in place, but by all accounts it's going to be another guy out of Baltimore's front offices. Anyone else sense a pattern here?

Personally, I don't see Mangini being any more successful than Crennel was.

Pacman Jones may very well be done. I've said this before, but when the Cowboys think you're too much of a thug, then the only team left is Oakland. Even so, I'm not convinced he'll be allowed to play given the latest news hitting the wires.

Even if Jones gets off by copping a plea, in the NFL's eyes it will be admitting at least some culpability on the part of Jones who allegedly ordered a shooting. Roger Goodell made it perfectly clear that Jones was on a short leash. This has to be the last chance.

For Pittsburgh, home field advantage in the playoffs is a myth. With Ben Roethlisberger under Center the Steelers are 3-0 in road games during the playoffs, but they're only 1-2 at home. In the three home games Big Ben has thrown eight interceptions against five touchdowns. On the road he's thrown seven touch downs against only one interception. In the losses he's thrown for an average of 248 yards per game and the team has averaged 25.3 points per game while giving up 29.7 ppg. In the wins - 226.7 yards per game, and 28.7 ppg scored while giving up 17.3 ppg.

Those numbers confirm something I have always said about Roethlisberger - if the team gets into a shoot out, Big Ben is prone to the mistake that will kill the team. I just didn't realize that he was more prone to make that mistake at Heinz Field.

The Panthers have to be feeling pretty good about their match-up with the Cardinals this weekend. The Panthers went undefeated at home this season while Arizona went 2-6 on the road, beating only the lowly Rams and Seahawks on the road.

So the Sox will be signing Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz according to reports. I like the signings. Baldelli could be a great help coming off the bench, and from what I've read, might be in better shape to play more than he did last season given that his condition was misdiagnosed.

I like the Smoltz signing. It's not a sexy signing, but with the top three of the rotation already set with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Sox already having Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and youngsters Clay Buccholz, Michael Bowden, and possibly Justin Masterson competing for the fourth, fifth, and swing-starter/long reliever positions on the staff, Smoltz will have a chance to get healthy and act as insurance on the pitching staff.

If I had to call it, by mid-season I think Masterson is the swing guy with the rotation looking like this -

Beckett, Lester, Dice, Penny, Smoltz/Wake (I figure there will be some time in the DL for Wake who has spent some time there each of the last two seasons).

Cleaning the Junk Drawer, part 2

2009-01-06T09:42:00.005-05:00

LaDainian Tomlinson is cooked. Yes, Tomlinson put up respectable numbers, but for the second straight year he broke down at the end of the season and has been the most talented bench warmer in the playoffs.

Each of the last two seasons Tomlinson's yards per rush average has decreased - first by half a yard, and then between this past season and the previous one, a shade under a yard. Tomlinson ran for fewer yards, produced fewer yards from scrimmage and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than at any other time in his career.

Over and above that, Tomlinson might be one of the more overrated running backs...ever. He's a regular season stud, but he's a post season dud.

Consider, for a guy who's supposed to be a game changer, he's come up flat in the big games - in six post-season appearances Tomlinson has averaged 3.6 yards per rush (regular season - 4.4), and only once exceeded 80 yards rushing (123 in a loss to the Patriots). The Chargers are 3-3 in the post season with Tomlinson, but in the team's three wins, Tomlinson has combined to rush for 95 yards (28, 42, and 25) in those three games on 33 carries (2.9 yards per carry). Not exactly an impact player in the NFL's second season.

The current rumor is that Scott Pioli is likely to land the KC position. If that happens, don't be surprised if Josh McDaniels ends up there - or Matt Cassel. It would be kind of ironic if Cassel ends up as the starter for the team that, in essence, launched his pro career, wouldn't it?

I would not be the least bit surprised if all three end up in the same place. The only issue I see is that if it is KC, that Pioli won't want to give up that first round pick because the Chiefs are desperately in need of a stud offensive lineman - unless he believes that the draft is deep enough that he will be able to get someone in the second or third round that can make a difference up front.

What the hell happened to the Celtics in the last two weeks?

I think the American League East is a lot of ifs -

If the Yankees pitching staff stays healthy, they can make the playoffs. Sure, they're likely to have a solid one-two with CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, but AJ Burnett has a history of injury, as does Joba Chamberlain when he starts (that goes back to before he was drafted - it's why the Yankees were able to get him with the 41st pick). If the Yankees have to rely on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for a significant number of starts, they should forget about the playoffs in the Bronx.

If Josh Beckett returns to form, and Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka continue to develop the way they have been, then the Sox have the best staff in the East and should make the playoffs.

If the Rays staff - including the bullpen - repeats the year they just had, they should be the favorites, particularly given the signing of Pat Burrell. Burrell is not a superstar, but he is a solid middle of the order (5th, 6th) sort of batter that will knock in about 90 runs and score about 72 runs in a season.

Speaking of the Yankees - kind of offensive that they go out and commit to over $400 million in contracts and then turnaround and tell the City of New York that they need $300 million more to finish the stadium, isn't it?

As good as the Eagles and the Ravens looked this past weekend, I don't think either team will go all the way, although I give the Ravens a better chance than the Eagles. Philly has a tendency to become too one dimensional. The flip side is that I don't trust the Giants without Plaxico Burress - they just haven't been that great without him.

I'm not saying that the best team is going to win the Super Bowl, but if I were to call it, I would say that the likely winner will be whoever is left standing in the Steelers-Ravens game, as long as the winner of that contest comes out healthy. Were I to rank the remaining teams based on their chances, I think I would look at it like this -

Steelers
Titans
Ravens
Panthers
Giants
Eagles
Cardinals
Chargers

If I had to venture a guess, the winner will be from the top four listed there and that the Giants will not repeat. Just a hunch.

Cleaning out the junk drawer of my mind for the new year

2009-01-05T09:22:00.005-05:00

Just some random observations about a variety of things...

First, I want to address the NFL MVP - Peyton Manning got that on reputation alone. He did not deserve it this season as he was as culpable in the Colts record through the first seven games as he was responsible for digging them out of the same hole. A lot of people with the MVP vote claim the Colts would have been horrible without Manning under center, but I don't buy that they would have been any worse than 3-4 through seven games before Manning came back if they had Jim Sorgi taking the snaps.

Consider - Sorgi, for his career, has seen action in 15 games (14 if you don't count the one time in 2006 when he came in to take a knee). In those 14 games, Sorgi is 99 for 156 for 929 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 89.9. As that was a lot of partial games, break that down to five games with an average of 20 completions on 31 attempts, 186 yards, and 1 touchdown per game. Certainly passable and capable of winning three or four games over a seven game season.

There are at least five players that have had a bigger impact on their respective teams - Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, Ed Reed, James Harrison all significantly change the equation if they're not on their teams, and it's unlikely that any of their teams make the playoffs without them.

The Falcons were exposed as young and inexperienced in what I thought was one of the more boring playoff games I have ever seen.

I like the way the Red Sox rotation is shaping up, and have a hunch that a lot of people are going to panic because the Sox aren't overspending to get the big, sexy names in free-agency. If this works out the way I think it will, the Sox off-season is going to be compared to the Patriots' 2001 free agent signings. A lot of really solid guys that help make a winner, but aren't the biggest names out there.

How many times does Scott Boras have to publicly screw the pooch before his clients begin to get worried. He was publicly neutered in the last Alex Rodriguez negotiations, blinked in his game of chicken with the Sox during the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations, he got lucky in the Mark Texiera sweepstakes in that the Yankees swooped in and pretty much bid against no one, overplayed his hand with both Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez.

Let's look at Ramirez for a second.

It's well known that Ramirez, likely on the advice of Boras, engineered his exit from Boston in an effort to get out from under his option years. That's not going to sit well with other general managers who will wonder if Ramirez will pull the same stunt on their teams.

Reportedly, Boras told Ramirez that he could get a four year contract for an average of $25 million per year, more than the two option years at $20 million each that the Sox would have had. Since the end of the season Ramirez has received a two-year $45 million offer from the Dodgers (since rescinded), and a three-year incentive-laden deal with a club option for a fourth year from the Giants. I'm guessing the dollars aren't in the right neighborhood based on the following from KPIX in San Fran -

The chances of the Giants signing Ramirez, a 36-year-old left fielder, were unclear. A team spokesperson told CBS 5, "it's not happening."

There was a lot of speculation that Roger Clemens would get a pardon from family friend George W. Bush and in so doing, avoid the legal implications of the federal charges that are likely to stem from the FBI investigation. Looks like charges aren't even going to get filed until after Bush leaves office. Sucks to be Roger.

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

Congrats to the Cardinals who have finally won a playoff game after a 60+ year absence from the post-season.

I don't want to hear any excuses today regarding the Colts. They were beaten by a depleted 8-8 team - a team without its best running back, their best linebacker, and with their best receiving threat, Antonio Gates, hobbled by a high ankle sprain. The Chargers didn't even play that great a game, twice giving the ball back to the Colts in the red zone while threatening to score. And then the Colts defense imploded during the final drive - that was some of the ugliest play-off football I have ever seen.

On a final note - Matt Cassel is about to cash in on a great season. More power to him. I figure we'll know the status of Tom Brady well before the draft. If Brady is on or ahead of schedule, I expect that Cassel will be packaged for draft picks. If he's not, the Patriots have a salary cap issue to address.

Happy New Year all!

The coaches they are a changin'

2008-12-31T17:32:00.004-05:00

Well, we've already seen Eric Mangini (Jets), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Romeo Crennel (Browns), and Mike Shanahan (Broncos) get their walking papers. There are other coaches that shouldn't be resting easy today, including; Jim Haslett (Rams), Herm Edwards (Chiefs), Marvin Lewis (Bengals) and, while I don't expect it, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a change in New Orleans at the expense of Sean Payton or one in Dallas at the expense of Wade Phillips. We already know that there will be changes in Seattle, and while it would surprise me, I think Jacksonville might consider a change. That's at least ten potential coaching changes in the offing.

Little more than 30 percent of the league's coaches could be collecting unemployment before this year's free-agent class has a chance to hit the market. I want to take a moment to go through each of the above and address some of the issues...

I'm not going to address Seattle as Mike Holmgren is leaving of his own accord, so let's start with Mike Shanahan. I've always felt that Shanahan was one of the league's more overrated coaches. I will give him credit for creating and running an offensive scheme that could probably make me a 1000 yard rusher in the NFL - and I'm a broken down 38-year old with bad ankles. However, for all his offensive genius, he's regularly missed in his search for the heir apparent to John Elway (consider, Bill Belichick, traditionally considered a keen defensive mind, has already had two quarterbacks perform up to snuff after Drew Bledsoe, then the best quarterback in franchise history, went down. Shanahan is on his third since Elway, the last two are journeyman back-ups, and the jury is still out on the current one).

A lot of people are surprised by the Shanahan firing. I'm not. Since Elway's retirement, Shanahan has had ten seasons of which he only had four seasons of more than nine wins. In his four seasons with Elway he had only one that had fewer than 12 wins. Even with the one 8-8 season in 1995, Shanhan averaged 12 wins per season with Elway as his quarterback. Since Elway's retirement Shanahan has averaged 9 wins per season and eight per season for the last three.

The team was in command of its destiny until it lost four of its last six, including losses to the moribund division rival Raiders, and the struggling Bills. Two winnable games that would have made the final game against the Chargers moot.

In Kansas City, Herm Edwards' fate is held in the hands of whoever replaces long-time president Carl Peterson. If I were a betting man, I would say his days in KC are done. I like Edwards but feel he has some shortcomings as a head coach. He seems to make bad decisions in critical pressure situations, which is what lost him the job in New York. My guess is that he returns to a coordinator position.

In the Meadowlands Brett Favre was the coach-killer. Honestly, as little as I like Eric Mangini, that late season collapse should have signaled the end of Mike Tannenbaum who saddled Mangini with Favre.

The reasoning for dropping Mangini who had two winning seasons in his three years there was that Tannenbaum gave Mangini a revamped offensive line, a former MVP at signal caller, and a beast in the middle on defense - never mind that the collapse can almost wholly be laid at the feet of Favre, Tannenbaum's hand-picked savior of the franchise, or that the quarterback they cut in favor of Favre arguably had an MVP-type season, or that the beast of a nose-tackle wasn't fit enough to stay on the field and be effective in the fourth quarter.

So Mangini is looking for work. If he can't land a head coaching job, it should be interesting to see if anyone will take him on in some capacity. My guess is that Spygate burned a lot of bridges for him.

Rod Marinelli was the beneficiary of Matt Millen's handiwork finally coming to full fruition. Marinelli may or may not be a good coach, but getting stuck with Matt Millen's picks, it's hard to tell.

Crennel's undoing was having a locker room full of really talented guys that couldn't figure out what it took to win, and Jim Haslett - well, Haslett had a couple of issues working against him, not the least of which was that the Rams are just plain bad.

Also a problem for Haslett - the double standard in the application of the Rooney Rule.

Mid season the Rams wanted to give Haslett an incentive laden contract. If he met the incentives, he came back as head coach, if he didn't, then it was at the discretion of the Rams. The NFL decided, as Haslett was an interim head coach, that the provisions were in violation of the Rooney rule.

Here are my problems with that -

The spirit of the rule was that it open up interview opportunities for minority coaching candidates. The 49ers were allowed to sign their interim head coach, Mike Singletary, to an extension without having to interview anybody - so, in essence, Norm Chow, Romeo Crennel, and possibly soon to be unemployed Herm Edwards, and Marvin Lewis had no chance to interview for the HC position in San Francisco. Not to mention the obvious inequity in regards to the way the league handled two coaches in the exact same position based solely on the color of their skin.

Also, I fail to see how what the Rams did is significantly different to what the Cowboys did in signing their offensive coordinator to a contract stipulating that he becomes head coach when Wade Phillips leaves, or the fact that a similar contract exists in Seattle between the Seahawks and Jim Mora, Jr.

In essence, Haslett got screwed because the NFL decided to apply the Rooney Rule capriciously.

In Cincy I expect that Lewis will be gone after six turmoil-filled seasons during which he averaged fewer than seven wins per season, and broke the eight-win barrier only once. Hailed as a defensive guru, only once - this past season - were his defenses in Cincy ranked higher than 20th, and at 16th, they were barely in the top half of the league. The average rank for his defenses since getting the job - 23rd.

Wrapping things up

2008-12-29T17:27:00.004-05:00

It's been a Helluva season in the NFL this year.

Gonna start with my beloved Patriots.

They lost a lot this season. They lost their quarterback, their safety, their signal-calling-linebacking leader, their running back, and a slew of supporting characters. And, ultimately, they lost in their bid for a playoff spot.

I'm not going to complain about the Chargers making it. Teams play the hand they're dealt, and the AFC East was tough this season. The West wasn't. Complaining about the Chargers making it would be hypocritical and disingenuous of me, given the blasting I gave "Hammering" Hank Steinbrenner over his whining about the Dodgers making it, in spite of the Yankees having a better record.

The Pats had plenty of chances to take care of business during the season and fell short - they were blown out of the water by a high school formation being run by the Dolphins in September; they had a three point loss to the Colts with a chance to tie it up late, only to get a personal foul that killed a potential game tying or winning drive; the defense failed to stop Brett Favre on a third and fifteen in overtime.

Win anyone of those and the Pats aren't looking for help Sunday, they win the division outright.

I'm not going to spend anymore time on that. What I will dwell on are the positives.

The Patriots found a guy that has potential to be a franchise quarterback. They saw strong performances from defensive rookies Jonathan Wilhite and Jerrod Mayo. Mayo started strong and Wilhite finished strong. The team began generating a pass rush late in the season with increased playing time for Mike Wright, Jarvis Green, and LeKevin Smith. The team found their running game, rushing for 628 yards over their last three contests. Before the injury, Pierre Woods looked more solid than he had ever been, and Gary Guyton looked like a keeper.

A lot of this gets the team a lot younger on the defensive side of the ball, and gives them a lot of flexibility in regards to what they want to do on that side of the ball going into next season.

When I've really had an opportunity to digest the Patriots' season, I will go over how I see the team going forward...now for the rest of the league...

Crush and burn...

This season has been a long, strange trip in which we learned a lot about a lot of teams - we learned who had heart, who was heartless, who was horrible, and who just plain didn't have balls.

Let's start with those who crashed and burned...

The Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Redskins, Bills, and Buccaneers all were thought to be locks for the playoffs, or to at the very least challenge for them, at one time or another during the season. At the beginning of the season all the pundits thought that the Cowboys were the most talented team in the NFC East. Six games into the season the Bills were thought to be a lock, running away from the the AFC East before crashing hard to earth; later the Jets were the best team in the division before Brett Favre became color blind, throwing more completions to the guys in the other jerseys than he did touchdowns. In one game the Buccaneers defense aged before our eyes and never recovered, the Broncos showed us they were ready to be sold to the glue factory and the to say the Redskins became one-dimensional once Clinton Portis was injured would be generous.

We learned that Tony Romo might be the most over-hyped quarterback in the NFL, that Brett Favre wasn't the answer, and that all of those teams were soft and lacked heart when it was needed most.

Props to the Detroit Lions who completed only the second perfect 16 game regular season - their record will live in infamy and as a standard against which football futility will be measured. The team has now lost 17 straight going back to last season, putting them nine games behind the Buccaneers 26 game losing streak spanning the 1976 and 77 seasons. Of course, the Bucs were an expansion team. The Lions just suck. Even if they win a game within the first nine next season to avoid tying or beating the Bucs mark of futility, all they have to do is lose the first game to have the distinction of being the only team to have a losing streak span three consecutive seasons.

Then there was the just plain bad - and that covered a lot of teams. The Browns were a mess, as were the Bengals, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams. These teams struggled as much with injuries (Seahawks, Chiefs, Jags, Bengals, Browns) and bad coaching (Rams, Raiders), as they did with boneheaded front offices (Raiders, Browns).

Just above them were the teams that fought their way to mediocrity, or underachieved into the same - the 49ers, Bears, Packers, Saints and Texans all ended up there usually due to some shortcoming on the team such as the Packers and Saints poor defense, or the Bears erratic offense.

Later I will hit on the playoff teams and the recent baseball developments.

'Tis the Season

2008-12-22T19:37:00.007-05:00

There are a lot of things I want but, oddly, I look forward to the small things at Christmas. Sure, it's nice, and always a pleasant surprise to get the big ticket item, but it's never really been about that to me (I won't get into the whole thing about the season of giving, because, let's face it, we're trained from a young age to get at this time of year). Some of my favorite things, though, are what my six-year old daughter manages to give me because she really is giving for the sake of giving, and when she spends five or six bucks for a gift, she's spending more than a whole week's salary on me.

Don't worry, this will tie back to sports soon, bear with me.

Part of my problem with getting gifts for family and friends is that I hate buying off people's lists - I feel like I'm not putting any thought into the item by going to someone's Amazon list and picking something off it.

As for people buying for me, there are a number of small things those buying for me know I would enjoy - Dennis Lehane and Raymond Chandler novels, a fine six pack or case of micro-brew or Guinness, Bogart films on DVD are just a sampling.

There is, however, a much more selfish list that no one can really buy me - and at times, I have to admit, it's at odds with the Christmas spirit. That said, here's my selfish list...

A Patriots playoff appearance. Failing that, Chad Pennington carving up the Jets secondary and garnering the MVP vote. There's a lot of talk about where the Colts would be without Peyton Manning this season, but we've already seen where the Dolphins would be without Pennington - and let's face it, it's a special sort of ugly.
A resolution to the Mark Teixiera sweepstakes...ideally at the expense of Scott Boras who seems to be losing his golden touch. In recent seasons he has looked bad in several of his highest profile negotiations - blinking in the game of chicken with the Red Sox over the Daisuke Matsuzaka contract, and getting a public spanking by Alex Rodriguez in the most recent dealings with the Yankees.
A Celtic Christmas. I know that during this time of year you're not supposed to wish misfortune on others (yeah, yeah, I know I already did in items one and two...deal.), but I want to see the Hibernians of the Hardwood lay the smack down on the Lakers to extend their winning streak.
That enough members of the Baseball Writers of America are visited by three really pissed off ghosts on Christmas Eve that show them the error of their ways and a guy named James Edward Rice gets the love he deserves in the next Hall of Fame vote.

Those are the big things the relatives won't be able to purchase. A little more seriously, I hope that the families that are apart due to the current military action have a safe and happy Christmas.

To my readers, you can all find a little bit of Christmas cheer here.

One final note - my sympathies go out to the family of Dock Ellis who passed this week. Ellis, who had a mostly solid, but unspectacular 12-year career split between the Pirates, Yankees, Athletics, Rangers, and Mets. Were it not for his no-hitter and a dominating 1971 when he went 19-9, Ellis would likely have faded into the nameless masses. As it were, Ellis, a contemporary of the Sox' own Bill "The Spaceman" Lee, was one of the true characters of the game, and will likely be most remembered for being high on LSD when throwing his no no, rather than his work as a spokesman in the fight against drug and alcohol addiction.

Rest in peace, Dock, the game was more interesting for having you.

Life

2008-12-21T19:08:00.004-05:00

Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks, the Patriots still have life in regards to the playoffs. The Jets, less so.

New England handled business in The Razor with a thorough dismantling of the NFC West champion Cardinals in every phase of the game. Any euphemism you can think of to describe this game, it's what the Pats did to the warm weather team that hasn't played a game in the snow in two and a half decades.

Matt Cassel outplayed Kurt Warner, Jabar Gaffney pretty much outplayed Larry Fitzgerald, hell, Cassel, Sammy Morris, and Lamont Jordan all put up better rushing stats than any running back on Arizona's roster.

Mike Wright and Jarvis Green did something rare this season - put pressure, regularly, on the Cardinals signal callers. Even wide receiver Matthew Slater got into the act while playing safety, springing Brandon Merriweather free on a blitz.

It was a good win for the Patriots who needed it, and a bad loss for a team looking to make some noise in the post season.

Looking at the rest of the AFC East still alive for the playoffs - the second life of Brett Favre is paling in comparison to that of Chad Pennington. If Eric Mangini doesn't do something drastic, the Dolphins will almost definitely be the AFC East champs next weekend.

One quick thought on that -

There's a very strong possibility that the Pats will go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. If that happens, so be it - it has already been a better season than I could possibly have imagined given the litany of season ending injuries to the likes of Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Laurence Maroney, Tedy Bruschi, and others on the Pats roster. It is also reassuring for next year.

There will be a lot made about how the rest of the AFC East has closed the gap, pointing to the records - and they have indeed closed the gap, but I don't think that either the Jets or 'Phins split with the Pats if New England has a healthy Tom Brady.

This is what I believe in regards to the AFC East -

Chad Pennington has helped the Dolphins close the gap significantly more than Brett Favre has.

I think the end of the season Brett Favre is more likely what we will see for the majority of next season than the beginning of this past season Brett Favre. The tank is running on empty. At best, he has eight good games left in him. It would be nice if one of them came next weekend.

The injuries to the Pats this year could be a blessing in disguise, as it will make competition at linebacker and defensive back much more fierce next season. I expect more from the defense next season, and also believe that the Pats brain trust will address that side of the ball in the draft.

I'm not convinced Scott Pioli is going anywhere, but there will be a lot of rumors about where he's going to end up.

I do think Josh McDaniels is going somewhere, but I don't know if he's ready to run his own show yet.

One last note - Detroit is one game away from a perfect season. I'm rooting for the Packers next weekend.

System-atic detraction

2008-12-19T13:15:00.004-05:00

A funny thing has happened on the Patriots' way to a double-digit winning season.

Their back-up quarterback has put together, in 14 games roughly 400 more passing yards than did Tom Brady over the same number of games in 2001, with the same number of touchdowns and one fewer interception. The real creepy thing - Brady completed 63.9 percent of his passes. Matt Cassel? 63.8.

This has brought all the "Brady is just a product of the system" idiots back out.

I won't sugar coat it either - they are idiots and they have no concept of the game, nor it's history.

Ultimately ALL quarterbacks, particularly the greats, are products of systems. The ones that struggle tend to do so for many reasons. For some it's about not really having the talent to compete at the NFL level as a starter, but for many it's a lack of consistency in the system - learning new systems, dealing with multiple coordinators, and so on. Few have the talent to overcome that. Drew Bledsoe and Dan Marino put up big numbers despite having to learn a variety of systems, but they're the exception, not the rule.

Yes, Peyton Manning put up great numbers throughout his career, but before Tony Dungy and his staff came in, his highest completion percentage for the season was 62.7 percent. After Dungy, the lowest that percentage has been 65.0. Manning has only been in two systems - the one under Jim Mora, and then the one under Dungy.

Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, Dan Fouts pretty much stayed in one system throughout their careers. David Carr, JP Losman - both have been through multiple offensive systems and neither has panned out. Sure, that's a small sample, but it wouldn't be that hard to broaden that.

Yes, Brady and Cassel are products of the Patriots' system, but no more than the fact that the system is a product of the quarterbacks' talents.

Were it just that a quarterback could step in and do well in the system, then we wouldn't be able to look at the following names and see a list of has-beens that couldn't operate the "system" -

Rohan Davey
Michael Bishop
Kliff Kingsbury

Right now, the Pats are 2 for 5 in the last ten years (not including Matt Gutierrez or Kevin O'Connell as the jusry is still out on them) in regards to guys who are "products of their system." So, either Cassel and Brady deserve credit for learning a difficult system (after all, more draftees have failed in it than succeeded), or they deserve credit for making a system work that 60 percent of the quarterbacks drafted by the Pats have failed to do.

Most of the Hall-of Fame quarterbacks were in the same

The week that wuz...

2008-12-18T12:02:00.003-05:00

A tip of the cap to "Slingin'" Sammy Baugh, member of the first NFL Hall of Fame class, former Redskins quarterback, punter, and defensive back. Baugh passed this week at the age of 94. Having seen a number of interviews with the ornery cuss - and he's the only person I've ever seen that really fits that description - I was convinced that Death was just afraid to take him.

For more on Baugh and his passing, check out The Coffin Corner's take.

So...

The Yankees are heading into next season with an ace that can't win in the postseason (Sabathia), a guy who has a history of only pitching well and staying healthy in contract seasons (Burnett), a solid number two guy (Wang), a guy who pretty much qualifies for AARP by baseball standards (Pettitte), and a guy who should stay in the bullpen given he had a history of breaking down as a starter even before he was drafted (Chamberlain).

Behind Sabathia, there are a lot of ifs in that rotation - If Burnett and Chamberlain stay healthy, If Pettitte can have another career year (after going .500 with a 4.54 ERA). Personally, I think the Yankees are looking at a lot of injury issues in that rotation.

I think that if the Sox sign Mark Texiera, then Mike Lowell is the odd man out. I don't know if it's smarter to move Lowell than to move David Ortiz as both have begun to suffer injuries that are of the "they were never the same after that" variety. People can talk about Ortiz getting healthy this coming season all they want, but this is a guy who has just gotten bigger each season (a-la Mo Vaughn), and his power issues this past year came as much from knee issues as they did from his wrist issues.

When big guys in MLB start suffering the knee issues, there usually aren't two many great years left in the tank - one, or two - but the gas is leaving the tank. Lowell isn't much better off with the hip issue. The problem is who can give them the most in return versus who still has the biggest impact on the line-up. I have to admit, I don't know the answer to that one myself. Hopefully Theo Epstein does.

I generally don't rant about the Pro-Bowl - the most useless all-star game of them all, so I will keep this short...

Here's what I think - the game should be abolished. Half those voted as starters beg off, a third don't deserve to be there (Brett Favre?!), and let's face it, there might be no game more boring.

Get rid of it.

Have an end of year honor in which the best players are honored, like the all pro-teams, but voted on by the players, coaches, and scouts. Limit the vote so that voters can only vote for those whom they faced during the season, keeping the limitation of not being able to vote for teammates.

The winners of the vote would still be treated the same under the contractual provisions as they currently are for the Pro-Bowl voting.

Ultimately it eliminates the biggest problems with the game - the first and foremost being that the game is boring. The second being that the wrong people are often selected because the fan tendency of selecting favorites, rather than those who deserve to be there.

Braincramp and other things...

2008-12-14T19:03:00.003-05:00

Just some quick thoughts on this past weekend's NFL games...

Watched the Bills-Jets game and could only come to the conclusion that the Bills of September were an illusion. Yes, I know that their starting quarterback is out, as is Aaron Schobel, their best defensive player. That doesn't excuse the Bills coaches who called for a pass with two minutes left. The coaches that called for a pass with two minutes left when their running backs were ripping off five to six yards a carry. Perish the thought that they protect the ball and possibly have to put the game in the hands of their defense because they had to punt the ball with about a minute to go. No, call a passing play and turn the ball over.

Boneheads.

The Raiders have set a mark for futility that not even the pitiful Lions have been able to achieve. With their loss to the Patriots, Oakland has become the first team in the history of the NFL to lose at least 11 games in six consecutive seasons. Barring a major overhaul of the organization, starting with Uncle Al, this is not a team that looks like they have an opportunity to win more than five games next season.

Speaking of the Lions, with their loss to the Colts, they're only two steps away from immortality. A bowl of gumbo, and a block of cheese, so to speak, with games left against two talented squads where players will be playing desperately for their jobs over the next two weeks. The Lions will be playing solely to avoid becoming the first 16 loss team in the history of the NFL.

With yesterday's win, the Pats can finish no worse than .500. The last time a New England team lost more than eight in a season was in 2000 when the team won only five games.

The offense was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the game with Matt Cassel throwing for four touchdowns and three other players reaching the endzone as the Patriots rang up 487 yards on offense and a total of 663 (including special teams). Unfortunately, were the Pats playing a better offensive team, this still could have been a close game despite the 47 points scored by the Pats.

The messiness that is the Raiders netted 545 combined yards against the Pats. Part of the reason why I think that if the playoffs are in the cards for New England, they'll be folding early.

As for the Pats playoff chances...

They got some help from the Steelers who dropped the Ravens in Baltimore. Currently the Ravens, Jets, Pats, and Dolphins are all tied at 9-5 with the Ravens holding the tie-breakers for the last wild card slot. Currently the standings look like this -

Jets - AFC East champ

Ravens - Wild Card
'Phins
Pats

To get in the Pats need to win out and get help from any number of places - to win the East, they need Miami to lose to Kansas City, and then win against the Jets, or for the Jets to lose to the Seahawks and then win against Miami. To get the wild card, the team still needs to win out with both the Ravens and one of the in-division foes to drop a game as before. Even though the Ravens have the toughest remaining schedule with the Cowboys and Jaguars still on the docket, I just don't see them losing either game.

If this is the end of the road for the Patriots this season, so be it.

With additional injuries to Gary Guyton and Matt Light this week, their job has become a lot tougher.

As for Cassel - he gave an impressive performance, given his situation, and the weather. I'm sure his dad would have been proud.

Those option years don't look so bad now, do they?

2008-12-12T10:44:00.004-05:00

Evidently Manny Ramirez isn't getting a whole lot of love in the free-agency market.

His reaction is to threaten retirement if he doesn't get the deal he wants.

So far the only contract offer the 36-year old Ramirez has received is the two-year $45 million contract that the Dodgers have since pulled off the table.

I said before that Ramirez and his agent Scott Boras were working under some delusional assumptions, one of which being that someone was going to throw a ton of cash at a 36 year old slugger in a long term deal, but that's only one part of his problem. Ramirez dug his own hole, and here's how...

Ramirez, a supremely gifted hitter, helped the Red Sox and Dodgers to, and in the case of the Sox, through the post season, and could, possibly, have four good seasons left in him. However, he has a history of playing only when he wants it - and his time with the Dodgers is a perfect example of that.

After obviously giving up on the Red Sox (including an obvious attempt at interfering with a fellow fielder by rolling over and sitting on the baseball in one game), Ramirez, knowing that his option years were voided in the trade with the Dodgers, very obviously turned the switch back on and was playing for a contract. Yes, Ramirez has the talent to help a team...almost any team, but GM's everywhere are going to wonder everyday which Ramirez they're going to get - the guy that plays hard? Or the prima donna that's going to lay down like railroad tracks just because he doesn't feel like playing that day?

This is not a guy who toughs it out, he's not a guy who plays through injury, and, by all accounts, is not a team guy. No, he's not the Barry Bonds who destroys club house chemistry, but he's also not the guy the goes out and has a beer with his teammates - unless he's playing for a contract.

Another issue for Ramirez was his complaint about the lack of privacy playing in Boston. Well, the only other team that can lay out the money over four to five years the way the Sox can is in the Bronx - and there's no more privacy there. Not so curiously, Brian Cashman has stayed away from Ramirez thus far. Now, I'm not saying it can't or won't happen - as a matter of fact, I think that the Yankees will go after him if the Sox sign Texiera, but I still don't think Boras is going to land his client the contract he kept telling Ramirez he could get if only he didn't have those option years.

The bottom line - either Ramirez makes good on his promise to retire because he's not getting the contract he wanted (and he won't), or he sucks it up to take a shorter contract (which assures a GM he will play hard for the next contract) with less money than he wanted. I think the latter happens, because no GM is going to invest $100 million over four years in someone he's worried is going to quit on him. In today's economic climate, those people that can still pay to go to games will run that GM out of town for paying a guy like that if he's not earning his money.

Can't say I feel for ya, Manny.

Fashion Statement

2008-12-12T08:39:00.002-05:00

The Red Sox unveiled new uniforms yesterday.

It's not the first time the team has tweaked their uniforms, although it has been a while.

I'm not usually one to comment on sports fashion - uniforms tend to either be garish (Houston Astros, San Diego Padres of the 1980's, the Denver Nuggets as recently as five years ago, the list goes on and crosses all sports), to sleek and pretty for the sport (the Patriots when they went with the flying Elvii Blues in the 1990's, Jacksonville Jaguars, etc), or just the sort of thing you don't mind getting dirty (Pat Patriot, Steelers, Packers, etc). I'm a bit of a traditionalist.

That said, the primary home uniform for the Sox...well, I like it. It has a throwback feel to it - like turn of last century throwback.

However, the away blues and the alternate home uni look like Spring Training jerseys.

Don't like 'em.

If they win in them, I won't really give a rat's ass, but my initial reaction is that the team shouldn't be playing their regular season games in what look to be Spring Training uniforms.

Winning absolves a lot of sins - the least of which, in my head, are fashion faux pas.

Castaways...

The Patriots are facing the woeful Raiders this weekend. It could very well be a trap game - the game against a depleted Seattle team almost was.

Consider, for the Seattle game, Richard Seymour was pretty quiet against a back-up left tackle, and Seneca Wallace looked like he didn't come into the game with a career 1-3 record as a starter.

But now the team goes to face another team at the bottom of its division in the 3-10 Raiders. They bring with them Raiders castaways Lamont Jordan and Randy Moss.

Funny thing about the majority of the free agents and other acquisitions (trades) the Patriots have had the last couple of years. There are a lot of players that have been castaways, cast-offs of other teams. Outside of Adalius Thomas, however, most have been taken off the scrap heaps of some sub-standard teams - Jordan and Moss from the bottom feeding Raiders; Wes Welker, Heath Evans, Billy Yates, and Sammy Morris from sub-.500 Dolphins (and in the case of Morris, Bills) teams; Rosey Colvin, cut from the Houston Texans who also once had Jabar Gaffney; Sam Aiken from the Bills; Kelley Washington, and Deltha O'Neal from the Bengals; Lewis Sanders from last season's attrocious Falcons team.

That list is comprised of 12 individuals that played on losing teams before coming to the Pats. It doesn't include any players on injured reserve, nor does it include players like Juniour Seau, or (the injured) Rodney Harrison, or Mike Vrabel, among others, who were all cast-offs from winning teams - teams that thought these players would not fit into their long term plans because they were either too old to contribute, or (it was believed they) just weren't good enough to crack the starting line-up.

That's a lot of other teams' trash - particularly that of losing teams - that seem to be performing better than what those teams expected of them.

Players, Guns, and Money

2008-12-10T09:02:00.006-05:00

A thought on the Plaxico Burress situation before I move on to other things.

A lot of players have come out of the woodwork with reasons to have guns or not have guns. Miami's Joey Porter, in an ESPN interview uses two justifications on behalf of Burress that are just stupid.

One, and he's not the only player that has said this, he noted that people know their schedules and know when they're out of the house, so they need the firearm for home protection. If I know I'm not going to be home, how is carrying a gun going to help me protect the home that's getting broken into? It's not.

Two, he challenges people to not carry a gun if they've had to deal with someone carrying a gun - a mugger, an assault. He gives the "see what you would do in that situation" defense. Years ago I worked as a teacher in a school for the emotionally disturbed. I helped my principal take a hand gun off one of the students. To this day I don't carry a gun.

And let's face it, while Porter says that Burress didn't hurt anyone but himself, he misses the points, and there are two. Burress COULD have hurt someone else and is just lucky he didn't. The second point - it was unregistered, and as such, an illegal weapon.

Butthead.

Quick thoughts on the MVP...

More often than not, the MVP goes to a quarterback. I get it. Outside of the QB, only the center touches the ball on virtually every play. So, here are some of my thoughts on the players, including some dark horse candidates, who could be considered in a year that has no clear cut candidate...

Drew Brees - Brees leads the league with 4100 yards through 13 games and is on pace for 5046 yards passing for the season and 32 touchdowns. Number like that automatically demand consideration. Brees has kept the team's head above water.

Cons - While Brees has kept the team from slipping below .500, his gaudy numbers haven't helped the team in the standings. In fourth place in their own division, the Saints are on the outside looking in at the playoffs. To even make the post-season, the 7-6 Saints are currently behind the Buccanneers, Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins, and Bears for the two wild card slots in the NFC.

Kurt Warner - Warner's numbers are second only to Brees and he has led the historically woeful Cardinals to their first division title since the 1970's. Because of Warner's arm, the Cardinals are one of only four three teams that have already clinched a playoff spot. Warner is also having his best season since his years with The Greatest Show on Turf - a big part of the reason that Warner is demanding consideration for the award.

Cons - Warner has put up those numbers in one of the worst divisions in football, and the team has struggled against opponents with winning records (2-5 against teams with winning records, with the last one against the Romo-less Cowboys in early October).

Michael Turner - Admittedly, a dark horse candidate, but I like him for the award more than Adrian Peterson. The old black and blue division still isn't what it once was, but Turner has logged his 1200+ yards on the ground against defensive stalwarts like Carolina and Tampa. Without Turner in the backfield, Matt Ryan likely doesn't have the Rookie of the Year sort of season that he's been logging.

Cons - As good as the Falcons have been, Turner hasn't put the team over the top in regards to positioning Atlanta for the playoffs. Also, he just hasn't been garnering the attention for this award that he deserves, making it unlikely that he will turn up with a significant portion of the vote.

There are others out there that deserve consideration in a year like this, with no clear cut candidate. Arguments could be made for the likes of Peyton Manning and Bob Sanders, both of whom have kept the Colts in contention, in spite of injuries and a bad start to the season. Todd Collins for the Titans, who surely would not be where they are with Vince Young under center. Brandon Jacobs, whose running has made a legitimate championship quarterback of Eli Manning.

The list goes on, and while I don't believe that all of those mentioned here will garner consideration, I do believe that one of the ones mentioned here is the player who is most likely to win.
Chad Pennington - For all that the "Wildcat" offense has done for the team, the Dolphins aren't in position to wrest the AFC title from the Patriots without Pennington under center. Possible proof that Eric Mangini didn't know how to utilize him, the former Jet has out-performed his replacement in the Meadowlands, throwing for more yardage, and a higher rating. Sure, Brett Favre has thrown for eight more touchdowns, but he has also thrown nine more interceptions and been sacked four more times.

Cons - Pennington has to fight the perception that a fair percentage of those wins were built on a gimmick offense early in the season. Also, like Turner, he just hasn't entered the conversation.

Matt Cassel - Cassel got some love for the award from the pundits after his back-to-back 400 yard games. Cassel, like Pennington, has kept his team in the playoff hunt. While Pennington is doing it with a team that only won one game last season, Cassel is doing it with a team decimated by injury on both sides of the ball. In spite of filling in for an NFL MVP, not starting a game since high school, missing his starting tight end for two games, losing his starting half back for the season, and the second and third backs for a quarter of the season (and more), and missing the right side of the offensive line until the sixth game of the season, Cassel has kept the Patriots in contention for the AFC East crown.

Cons - Like Warner, the team has struggled at times, with four of the team's five losses coming against quality opponents. Cassel also leads the league in sacks and is in the top ten in total yards lost due to being sacked.

Wes Welker - Cassel's safety blanket, without Welker, Cassel is probably nowhere. Welker, in spite of having only one touchdown on the season, is the battery that makes the Patriots offense go this season. Welker is the human third-down conversion, with 47 of his 96 receptions converting for first downs. The king of the bubble screen, Welker is also tied for tenth in the league in yards after the catch with 6.8.

Cons - The fact that he has only one touchdown will be held against him, as will the fact that he plays opposite of Randy Moss. Also, when's the last time a slot receiver was even considered for the award.

It's not the size, it's how you use it and other thoughts

2008-12-09T12:58:00.004-05:00

Get yer minds out of the gutter. I'm talking about Wes Welker, the Slot Machine.

Yes, I know that's what the announcers were calling him, but it fits.

Welker, with all due respect to Randy Moss, has been the Patriots best receiver over the past two seasons. Sure, Welker's the slot receiver, and yes, Moss has been the go to guy in the red zone, but Welker is the team's number one guy.

Over two seasons Welker has already far exceeded any other receiver's two season total of receptions with the 208 he's had since joining the team. Last season he set a new team record with 112. Through 13 games Welker, who has become Cassel's safety blanket, has 96, and is averaging 7.4 receptions per game, which puts him on a pace of 118 for the season. Welker is also on pace to finish with 1233 yards for the season after logging 1175 last year.

He is the guy that makes the offense work right now and possibly the toughest guy on the field.

...

The news that Tedy Bruschi is heading to the IR is not reassuring given the number of injuries on that side of the ball. Yes, Seau looked rusty, but I expected that given only one day of practice. Hopefully he's up to speed for the Raiders game. The flip side on Seau - what if the Pats hadn't signed him?

Given the news regarding Bruschi, I'm guessing we're going to hear about some other roster move to bolster the defense.

If Vince Wilfork is lost for any significant amount of time, that's a problem.

The secondary has already been exposed due to a lackluster pass rush. The last thing the DB's need is a weakened D line.

Before anybody whines about Asante Samuel - he would be just as exposed in this defense. Samuel, for all his reputation, was not significantly better than Ellis Hobbs last season (he did have a career year in regards to interceptions, but that's the only place) according to STATS, Inc. Samuel, this year, in a defense that was not getting to the QB the way the Pats were last year, has only three interceptions. A good line makes a pro-bowl defensive back. It doesn't work the other way around.

Yes, the Pats secondary has struggled this season, but that's in large part because the team has had trouble applying pressure to the quarterback. And before anyone argues that with me, think back to all of Ty Law's INT's of Peyton Manning - every time Manning has been flushed out of the pocket and was facing hits from the likes of Jarvis Green and Richard Seymour or Mike Vrabel.

It is the area in most need of being addressed by the Patriots whose defense has often looked more like the 2002 edition than any of the other editions since the Super Bowl in 2001.

War of Attrition

2008-12-07T19:55:00.002-05:00

It was an ugly win, but I'll take it.

The New England Patriots are tied atop the AFC East with the Jets and Dolphins after a much tougher game against the Seattle Seahawks than almost anyone could have predicted. The team's struggles from last week continued as the offensive line often seemed over-matched by a mediocre defense, Matt Cassel returned to some of the poor decisions that plagued him in the first couple of weeks, and the defense, while it did some good things, it continued its deterioration.

The line and the quarterback both struggled with the blitz. Cassel sometimes tried to run when he should have just loaded up and overthrown a receiver on the sideline. Moss continues to be plagued by the dropsies - a season long problem (and don't tell me that one was good defense; the ball hit Moss on the hands and ricocheted off his chest without the defender ever touching it on the one play). The defense made Seattle's offense look like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf on the Seahawks' first two drives.

Injuries haven't helped this season, but they still have to go out and perform.

I want to see the Patriots in the post season, make no mistake about it. That doesn't mean I believe they can actually do anything in the post season should they get there.

Admittedly, the fact that they are still in position to possibly win the division given what this team has gone through is nothing short of amazing.

The team played their first game without Kevin Faulk, Stephen Neal, Nick Kazcur, and largely without Tom Brady. Ty Warren has missed games and when he's played it's been obvious that he's injured.

The list of regulars that have missed multiple games, or have been lost for the season -

Neal
Kaczur
Brady
Warren
Rodney Harrison
Adalius Thomas
Laurence Maroney
Lamont Jordan
Sammy Morris
Ben Watson
Lewis Sanders
Kelley Washington

And other players who have missed at least one game, or a significant chunk of a game...

Tedy Bruschi
Vince Wilfork
Wes Welker
Pierre Woods

I'm sure I've missed somebody in all that mess, but this is what it comes down to - the team has played significant portions of the season without:

The starting right side of the offensive line
The starting quarterback
The leader of their defensive backfield
Half the starting linebacking corps
The top three half backs on the depth chart

All of that and 8-5 with three weeks to go. No way I would have believed it if someone had told me at the beginning of the season that the team would have experienced this sort of attrition.

Take me, take me to the movies

2008-12-05T08:02:00.003-05:00

Okay, here's the pitch...

A championship caliber team, riddled with injuries, is in danger of missing the playoffs for only the second time in eight seasons. What does the team do? No, they don't throw the waterboy out there. They don't do some hair-brained thing like rumble off the field with the league bullies to make them come together as a team.

No.

They bring back the grizzled veteran - the guy who everybody thought was done. Tough as nails, old school, the guy shows the young guys the right way to play, and is the impetus for the team's playoff run.

I'm sure that's what the Patriots are hoping for with the likelihood that 39-year old Junior Seau likely to be back in the fold today.

I do see this in movie terms, but I see this as one of the two following...

Bill Belichick and Dean Pees as John Belushi and Dan Aykroyd respectively, standing in Rosevelt Colvin's living room earlier this week wearing sunglasses and pork pie hats while telling Colvin, "we're puttin' the band back together."

or

Belchick with his head shaved, a-la Yul Brynner, and Pees looking like Steve McQueen...maybe Scott Pioli is McQueen and Pees is the ineffective, impotent Robert Vaughn in the magnificent seven as Brynner assembles the team. Offhand, I guess that makes Jerrod Mayo the young hot-head played by Horst Buchholz, Tedy Bruschi is somehow the Mexican/Irish gunslinger played by Charles Bronson, Rosy Colvin as the money happy Harry Luck, and Mike Vrabel in the roll of Britt, as played by James Coburn. Right now, the rest of the team is pretty much the villagers.

Yeah, it would be nice if it all played out like the Magnificent Seven. Sure, not many of them were left in the end (which also sounds like the Pats linebacking corps), but they won.

At this point, I make no assumptions regarding the team's final record, but I'm guessing if the team is signing Seau that the injury to Bruschi's knee is worse than initially reported. Signing Seau gives the team five healthy 'backers - along with Vrabel, Mayo, Gary Guyton, and Colvin. I think that Bruschi will see snaps against the Seahawks this weekend, but no more than Seau will.

Race relations?

2008-12-03T14:16:00.006-05:00

I don't know if race figures into this or not, but the more I see what's happening with Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame, the more I'm seeing s definitive double standard with the school's handling of Weiss when taken against the background of how they handled Ty Willingham.

Speaking of potential race issues, with Michael Vick back in the news for the state dog fighting charges and the upstart UFL announcing they have a place for Vick, all the idiots are crawling out of the woodwork. The ones that are yelling for the NFL to take him back, and the others that the way Vick was treated smacks of racism.

Whether the NFL takes Vick back or not is their business - however, as much as people will want to scream racism if they don't, the decision will be based on business, pure and simple. It is not in the NFL's best interest to have fans walking past protesters at games where Vick will be, bringing their children past photos of abused animals. Vick has, in essence, made himself an unmarketable commodity, and unless he becomes a very vocal spokesman for animal rights, he will continue to be a very unmarketable commodity.

Beyond that, with the NFL, there's a league with roughly 3,000 players, 70 percent of which are black. I have a hunch that the vast majority of them don't believe they've been the victims of racism from the league.

As for the government, I would be surprised if they gave a rats ass whether Vick was black, white, or plaid. The bottom line is he broke the law, federal law, and the government actually gave him a sentence that was light considering the statute.

I can't say for sure whether or not Vick will get a chance to play in the NFL again. The UFL might be a step in that direction, but there are a number of things Vick will have to overcome to be a quarterback in the NFL again and rehabilitating his image is only the first step.

In light of Matt Ryan's success with a team that has been Vick's, Vick is going to need to show that he can be an effective leader. Given the fact that he had teammates that questioned his commitment to the game, putting into question his abilities as a leader, he has his work cut out for him.

In a year in which we could be seeing as many as 13 coaching changes, who are the potential coaches of the year?

If the Patriots make it to the playoffs and do better than one and done, Bill Belichick will get some consideration, but he's likely not the most deserving. Nor is Tom Coughlin, who will get consideration as well for guiding the Giants to an impressive record following their Super Bowl season. Jeff Fisher will get some serious consideration as well, but for my money, these need to be the top candidates -

Mike Smith - The Atlanta Falcons first year coach has been doing more with less this season than any of the above. He's got a team that was decimated last season by the Vick issue, and the whole coaching fiasco. He's doing it with the arm of a rookie quarterback, the hands of a rookie receiver, and the legs of a free-agent career back-up running back. Those were the big additions in the off-season. He's already doubled the team's win total from last season (4), and, barring a meltdown in the final four games, will make double digits and have a legitimate shot at 12 wins.

John Harbaugh - The rookie coach of the Baltimore Ravens has done something that supposed offensive guru Brian Billick was never able to do during his entire tenure in Baltimore: install a working offense (11th), with a rookie QB who's putting up solid numbers. Harbaugh, however, inherited a talented defense, more talented than the one Mike Smith inherited. The Ravens have the hardest road over the last four games with the Skins, Steelers, Jags, and Cowboys over the final four weeks of the season.

Tony Sparano - The Dolphins actually still have a shot at the division one season after going 1-15. Like Smith, Sparano took over a train wreck of a team, well, THE train wreck of a team and has them at 7-5. The idea that this is a team that could feasibly win 11 games one year removed from a season in which they flirted with going winless is amazing. Honestly, as much as I dislike the Dolphins, if the Patriots drop two of their next four, I'm hoping the 'Phins and Jets go into week 17 tied if for no other reason than to see Chad Pennington outplay Brett Favre.

That said, I still want to see the Pats beat out the Jets and 'Phins. However, whether the 'Phins make the post-season or not, Sparano deserves serious consideration.

For my money, right now, the horse race for COY looks like this -

1A. Sparano

1B. Smith

2. Harbaugh

3. Fisher

4. Coughlin

5. Belichick

6. Zorn (dependent on whether or not the team continues its recent struggles, or gets it together for a playoff run, he could move up or off the list).

On a final note - Victor Hobson signed with the Bengals, ending any speculation that he will rejoin the Patriots this season.

News, notes and the weekend's meltdown

2008-12-03T10:14:00.004-05:00

I'm going to start with Sunday's fiasco.

It was a complete clusterf#@k.

From top to bottom, this was an almost epic failure by the team. Yes, there were two blatant pass interferences missed by Ed Hochuli's crew, but that would have been irrelevant were it not for the the dropped passes, the missed blocks, the muffed kick returns, and the blown coverages.

Yes, Cassel had a bad game, throwing several interceptions, but he was hardly the goat of the game. Two drives ended with blind side strip sacks courtesy Matt Light being tossed around like he weighed one-hundred pounds, giving the Steelers short fields to work with. One drive never started because Matthew Slater coughed up the ball on the Patriots 20 on a kick-off. Then there was Randy Moss dropping three catchable passes - one in the endzone before a missed field goal attempt.

And that was just the offense and special teams.

That doesn't even take into account the fact the defense couldn't get off the field unless they were aided and abetted by the Pittsburgh offense.

Overall, the only player that I can't fault from this past weekend's travesty of a game is Kevin Faulk who accounted for 121 yards of the team's total offensive output of 267 yards. Almost half.

After this travesty, the Patriots are likely going to need to run the table in order to make the playoffs, and even that won't guarantee them a spot as they now have to rely on others to lose.

At this point, however, I'm convinced that even if they do make the big dance, they're going to be done after only one partner.

Hopefully the latest news will help a defense that ha been brutal the last couple of weeks -

On Wednesday the Patriots welcomed linebacker Rosevelt Colvin back to the fold. Colvin, who inked a one year deal with the Patriots, will help to shore up a depleted linebacking corps that now has injuries to Adalius Thomas, Bo Rudd, Shawn Crable, Eric Alexander, and Pierre Woods, and is playing with an injured Tedy Bruschi. Theoretically, if Colvin can get up to game speed, he should also help with the team's lackluster pass rush, which in turn will aid the inexperienced secondary which has been getting carved up as late.

Word is the Patriots have contacted Victor Hobson as well, who was with the Patriots in training camp. With Colvin in the fold, I think Hobson is unlikely to join the team, but it would not surprise me if he did, considering Bruschi is listed as questionable on the injury list.

Trading on the Gridiron for a walk in the Park

As the Red Sox are taking a deliberate approach to shaping the roster for 2009 - exploring trades, feeling out free agents, and offering arbitration - the Yankees are aggressively pursuing free agents like CC Sabathia, offering the pitcher a 6-year $140 million contract roughly two weeks ago.

Curiously, there has been no movement from the Sabathia camp, which begs several questions - Is he waiting to see if Mark Texiera signs with the Sox, freeing up money for a big contract from the Angels? Is he looking for more money? Or is it possible he just doesn't want to play in New York?

If the issue is the last, it begs the question of how effect the Sox chief rivals are going to be - if the big free agents are spurning the money because they don't believe they can win in the Bronx, what does that mean for the Yankees in 2009? Are we looking at a team that will truly have to give in to the philosophy of rebuilding, or is there any chance tat they will be able to buy their way into...well, being competitive as in past years? If that's the case, then what are we looking at? A team that has shifted from overpaying for highly talented players just past their prime, to a team overpaying for mediocre middle of the road players in the prime of their careers (see Nick Swisher).

While I'm not convinced it's happening yet, it is interesting to think we might be witnessing the death rattle of what had been one of the most dominant professional franchises in North America over the last decade and a half (when championships and post-season appearances are considered). If this is happening (and until Sabathia spurns the offer, I'm not sure it really is happening) after the first season in which they missed the playoffs in more than a decade, it makes me wonder if the Yankees, even with all that cash at their disposal, are going to be able to buy their way back into contention any time soon, or if they really are going to have to build from within.

From the Park to the Garden...

Two quick final items...

The Celtics are looking like they're still hungry. So far the team seems to have picked up where they left off after their championship season. I can't say for sure that they are going back to the finals again, it's early for that, but they certainly look like they're favorites to make it back. Even so, I think the Pacers and the Hawks look tougher this season than they did last.

Over on the ice the Bruins are looking pretty good, but they looked good early last season as well. With any luck, they keep the good play up and go deep in the playoffs.

For years they have either been a just miss, or a one and done team. With recent championships from the Sox, Pats, and C's, I think the pressure is on the Bruins to perform.

Plaxico in the only news that counts...

2008-12-02T11:05:00.001-05:00

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jon Stewart Touches Kids - Plaxico Burress

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

And the idiot shoots his mouth off again

2008-11-26T19:24:00.004-05:00

Sure, the Patriots aren't the team they were last year, but the Steeler offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. Even so, you would think that Pittsburgh safety Anthony Smith would be wary of shooting his mouth off after being a human turnstile last year.

Last year the Steelers owned the number two defense in the league, this year they're number one.

However, they are only 1-2 against top ten offenses, and 1-2 against the top ten pass-happy offenses.

Who has the Steelers defense beat? The San Diego offense at number seven was impressive, but who were the others?

Houston at 18.

Cleveland. They're 25th.

Baltimore which sits at 13th.

Cincinnati twice. They're barely an NFL offense at 31.

The Jags who sit are a rousing 23rd.

Then there are the Redskins with the 27th offense in the league.

The average rank of the offenses they have beaten - 22nd.

The average rank of the offenses that have beaten them - 10th.

The Patriots are the 11th ranked offense in the league.

I'm not saying that the Pats will win, or that Pittsburgh will win. While Pittsburgh forged their top defense against some pretty crappy offenses, the Pats forged their offense against some poor defenses, with their victories coming against defenses with an average ranking of 24th, and have played no top ten defenses. The highest ranked defense they have played is the 12 ranked Jets D against whom they are 1-1, and they averaged 25 points, including the recent 31 point effort in an overtime loss.

What's my point? Mostly that the offensive and defensive rankings generally mean diddly. Typically top ranked offenses and defenses are forged against crappy opponents. Not always, but more often than not, that's the way of it.

deficiencies in coverage, and that's going to be important in this game, as picking on the safeties has been a staple in the Patriots' victories over the The bottom line is that those things aren't going to matter come Sunday. What will is which coaching staff best prepares their team to take advantage of the other team's shortcomings, while neutralizing their opponent's strengths. While Mike Tomlin has shown himself to be a pretty good coach, I'm guessing he hasn't figured out yet how to cover for Troy Polamalu'sSteelers.

Pats fans, remember to vote.